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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: alburk who wrote (17522)	9/12/2002 3:21:07 PM
From: JSwanson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

Price target seems very optimistic given comments "on track for .07 and modestly encouraging outlook". Forward PE approaching 30? Actually, ORCL only earns about 15% to 20% of its annual EPS in its fiscal first quarter. Based on the previous statement, a 1Q03 estimate of $0.07 would indicate FY03 EPS of $0.35 to $0.47. The actual FTM consensus is $0.42. A normalized FTM estimate would be $0.41 (based on the 5 YR average ROE times book value). Using the consensus FTM EPS, one arrives at a P/E of 22.9x. This compares with a range of 23x to 32x over the past seven years, excluding the insane multiples from 9/99 through 2/01.