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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (171027)	9/13/2002 2:56:00 AM
From: NITT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

re:"I believe AMD is doing exactly the latter." If they are doing the latter, then the competition right now is not the Itanium, it's the Pentium and Xeon. AMD needs to finds a way to ship 20-30 million of these chips per year to really put a dent in the market and they need to get the ASP north of $150... $200 would be even better for them. They were at a $4B+ per year run rate at their peak. AMD needs to get above that for a sustained period on the next cycle in order to survive. They do not have much of a chance to get there before 2004 as it looks right now, and that assumes they have the SW support needed to win workstation and server business so they can get the ASPs up. If AMD decides to attack only the Itanium, they may win a few sockets, but they could miss the volume, and if they go after the volume they could be competing against sub- $200 chips. It's a tough dilemma when you have to start producing both revenue and profits ASAP. Intel has always (since the late 80’s) survived on the volume desktop and then gets some bonus dollars in servers, workstations and mobile. AMD has not managed to get a foothold that allows them to branch out. If the market had not gone in the dump, the Athlon may have been able to carry them to the X86-64, and I'm sure that was their plan... I'm not sure they can invest enough in the months and years to come to really make this all happen. They no longer have Intel to draft on as they did with the X86 instruction set, and real 64bit code for AMD chips is a much bigger task then getting a couple of application providers to add 3D-Now support. I'm not declaring them done, but it's going to be very tough. This should not be looked at as the world is therefore very bright for Intel. I believe Intel still needs to execute… and they need some good news in the overall economy or at least IT spending in the next couple of quarters. If the communications market begins a turnaround too, that would be very encouraging. This assumes there are enough of the complementary parts available to allow for a ramp t happen. Nitt