CADET PROTEST IN AZERBAIJAN INDICATIVE OF MILITARY TENSION
Fariz Ismailzade: 9/12/02
eurasianet.org
Azerbaijani military and political leaders are downplaying recent upheaval at Azerbaijan’s top military academy, saying the school is again operating on a "normal schedule." But some observers say the cadet protest is an indicator of serious unrest within the military establishment. Opposition parties are hoping to utilize the incident, along with the ongoing controversy surrounding the August constitutional referendum, to step up the pressure on President Heidar Aliyev.
Nearly 2,000 cadets at the Higher Military Academy in Baku went on strike September 3 to protest poor living conditions and abusive treatment at the hands of instructors. The protest occurred several weeks after President Aliyev personally participated in the academy’s graduation ceremony, and praised the Ministry of Defense for its training programs.
The Ekho newspaper in Baku reported September 10 that students, prior to staging their walkout, appealed to Mammad Beydullayev, deputy defense minister for personnel, who shrugged off the students’ complaints. "I wish you good luck, but you will regret it," he reportedly told cadets, who shortly thereafter staged their protest action.
The source of student discontent was the departure of Turkish military instructors several months ago, and their replacement with Azerbaijani officers, according to several published reports. Conditions under the Azerbaijani administration rapidly deteriorated, and some instructors reportedly demanded that cadets pay bribes. "When the school was under Turkish supervision, things were put in order," Ekho quoted Alakbar Mammadov, head of the Democratic Center for Citizens’ Supervision of the Armed Forces, as saying September 6.
"After the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry started to supervise the school, negative tendencies started to emerge," Mammadov continued. "They are similar to those existing in the army – corruption, bribery and embezzlement. The food was bad. There was a shortage of uniforms and no normal conditions for military training."
President Aliyev has portrayed protest as a "minor incident." Most cadets have returned to classes after receiving assurances from authorities that they would not be punished. At the same time, a government commission investigating the incident is expected to recommend the dismissal of the academy’s commandant, Tofik Gasimov, along with his deputies and several instructors.
Though the protest exposed a festering mood of discontent throughout Azerbaijan’s military establishment – all connected with lax discipline, pervasive corruption and abusive behavior by senior officers – political analysts differ on the incident’s implications.
Opposition parties and independent press were quick to describe the cadets’ action as evidence of a "conflict between NATO standards and the Soviet legacy." To a large extent, the incident shows that government efforts to reform the country’s military structure, initiated following Azerbaijan’s disastrous performance in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, have failed. Despite large amounts of Turkish military assistance, Azerbaijan’s armed forces remain a long way from reaching NATO standards.
The cadet protest came on the heels of the August referendum in which voters supposedly approved constitutional changes that could potentially help Aliyev transfer power to his son, Ilham. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The United States and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have criticized the referendum, citing "widespread irregularities," including ballot-box stuffing. Some local observers say that opposition leaders are intent on linking the cadet protest to the referendum rigging in an attempt to convince international opinion that Aliyev’s continued leadership could lead to turmoil in oil-and-gas rich Azerbaijan.
As for the military, some analysts say that, given current conditions, the army may be prone to future mutinies. "Azerbaijan seems to be acquiring an attribute of a "banana republic," and entering a new era in which the army can turn into an important political tool," a Turan news agency commentary said. Others contend that the military establishment remains loyal to Aliyev. Regardless of the army’s allegiance, however, morale, especially among younger officers, appears to be significantly damaged.
Observers also say the incident is unlikely to have much impact on the search for a Karabakh political settlement. Talks are currently stalemated. As a way of breaking the deadlock some Azerbaijani politicians have threatened renewed Azerbaijani armed action. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Few international observers have taken the threats at face value, and Armenian officials appeared unmoved by belligerent posturing. However, the cadet protest would seem to eliminate completely the possibility of Azerbaijan mounting an offensive in the near future.
Many observers now wonder whether the government will be able to address the underlying causes connected with the protest, and press ahead with effective reform. Some analysts question Aliyev’s commitment to improving the military’s capability. Since Azerbaijan gained independence in 1991, the country has experienced several uprisings, including the 1993 mutiny led by Suret Husseinov in 1993. Ongoing concerns about the military’s reliability may be a factor in the government’s reluctance to strengthen army capability.
"It is clear that order should be introduced by the president," the Turan commentary said. "As commander-in-chief, he [Aliyev] bears the main responsibility for the abnormal state of the army. But the president is demonstratively refusing to notice problems, which creates the perplexing questions: what kind of army does he need?"
Editor’s Note: Fariz Ismailzade is a free-lance writer on Caucasus geo-politics and economics based in Baku. He holds a master’s degree from Washington University in St. Louis and has previously published at Caucasus-Central Asia Analyst, East-West Institute, Institute for War and Peace Reporting and Baku Sun. |
