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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (43660)	9/13/2002 12:14:35 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

That is an interesting analysis, but the odd thing about it is that it is 180 degrees apart from the usual neocon analysis, which is that Saudi Arabia (and pals) are against our attack on Saddam because they figure that they're next. Not really. The question being asked wasn't, 'are the Saudis secretly happy about the US invading Iraq', but 'what do the Saudis intend to do about the US invading Iraq'. Answer: nothing. In fact, the reason given in the analysis for Saddam being the Saudis' second choice was that they feared possible democratization in Iraq -- which is exactly what we have said we want. This agrees with the neocons' main argument about SA, which is that they fear a democratic Iraq and the loss of more of their oil leverage. I have not seen neocons argue that the Saudis seriously fear a US takeover (that's one population we do NOT want to rule, and the whole Muslim world would go ape), though I have seen some sigh for a Hashemite restoration.