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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (171047)	9/13/2002 10:54:13 AM
From: Windsock	Respond to of 186894

Dan Re:"If AMD had ASPs of $150 on 30 million hammer sales" AMD has ASPs of ~$65 and sales of ~6 million processors per quarter. They have a bit of a way to go to hit your "if".

To: Dan3 who wrote (171047)	9/13/2002 11:58:37 AM
From: NITT	Respond to of 186894

re"You're confusing AMD with Intel. If AMD could get its ASPs above $100 on 30 hammer million sales, they'd be making more money, per share, than Intel does. If AMD had ASPs of $150 on 30 million hammer sales, they'd be netting well over $1 per share, from ongoing operations, per quarter." The current line of Athlon may actually be selling at or below marginal cost today... that means they make no money, or actually lose more money with every chip sold. I don't see how that changes in the next year. I don't know what the cost of the Hammer line will be, but there is a new design on a new process, probably going to a new fab, with new testing, new packaging, new support components, and new software etc. My guess is they have a long way to go to getting costs down on the Hammer… and they have a long way to the first production shipment, let alone the millionth, or the 10 millionth. Hammer will need to start ramping with an ASP well above $200 each if they expect to have an ASP of even $100 when and if they can hit volume of 2 million/month+. They also have to balance out that sub $50 ASP the Athlon is going to be at very soon, or do they just walk away from the only segment they have today.