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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (15447)	9/13/2002 8:39:36 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78666

HQH hit my buy target of 14.25$ today - i bought what i consider a full position. This is a pretty good biotech fund and the 19% discount to NAV makes this and interesting sector play. Another plus of HQH is that one can sell, take a tax loss and switch to the sister fund HQL. I also bought a starter position in GENZ. I have owned thos stock several times in the past. The company has been consistently profitable thanks to the Gaucher franchise. I like their strategy of developing biological treatments for small population diseases where competition is less fierce. I bought GENZ many times when the PE was below 18, with so far very profitable results. On the other hand AZ seems to be sinking like a stone after their announcment to bolster Fireman's fund asbestos reserves by 750M$. However i ought to believe that insurance will come back after the 9/11 disaster and AZ should profit from a rebound. My gut feeling prevented me from putting any dollars into FMS. The sinking fortunes of FMS seems to be caused by concerns about asbestos legacy and the fact that healthcare services have a higher perceived risk due to reimbursement rule changes (See Healthsouth).

To: Paul Senior who wrote (15447)	9/15/2002 9:38:03 AM
From: Robert Hoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78666

Paul, you got a good price on FLM last week. I have been poring over it this weekend, and still don't see any serious problems other than a transparent short attack. They've done an effective job of manipulating the news wires and scaring less sophisticated or committed investors, but they can't change the fundamentals. I assume FLM can earn $2.00 this year, and after that, I will subtract .50 or .60 to account for a possible KM liquidation. So conservatively I will estimate $2.50 for 2003. If we can get a p/e of 5 to 10 it's a good buy at less than $6.00. And if KM lives another year the upside is even higher. Current ratio and other liquidity measures look okay and should improve. The company's slideshow presentation is informative and is on their website at www.fleming.com. The conference calls are there, too. Assuming that we know the value of what we are buying, as the price goes down, the margin of safety goes up, and this becomes a safer and safer investment. But psychologically, it doesn't feel that way if you are looking at paper losses.