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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scratchmyback who wrote (20787)	9/13/2002 4:13:57 PM
From: DiB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

You are correct, one customer default cannot be the only explanation for the revenue miss. However, I disagree with your assertion that "Lucent has more or less given up all GSM and WCDMA network business". They have "mobility" products to support all kinds of "old G" and 3G, and I bet they pay very close attention to what Verizon is planning to do. Verizon and Lucent are very close, and Verizon usually gives Lucent a chance in every RFP. Just my 2 cents, -DiB

To: scratchmyback who wrote (20787)	9/13/2002 4:53:29 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 21876

What I was trying to suggest was that Verizon might have delayed its CDMA network expansion because Vodafone (they own 45 % of Verizon Wireless) could still be pushing WCDMA for Verizon. Verizon Wireless actually accelerated their deadline for nationwide deployment of 1x from sometime next year to the end of this year. They may have cut infrastructure spending but it doesnt look like it was on 1x. Slacker

To: scratchmyback who wrote (20787)	9/13/2002 8:15:45 PM
From: sylvester80	Respond to of 21876

Sprint lowered subscriber growth by half. With more than half of their revenues of Lucent and Nortel from wireless, wireless cap ex declines is the next show to drop. That is the reason for the warning as well as Nortel's one. The current equipment that Sprint, Verizon, Cingular etc... already have in the field, are more than enough to support the 50% declining growth. In fact, the way this growth is declining, -50% last quarter and again -50% this quarter, I expect the wireless companies see the writing on the wall that by the next 2 quarters there will be very little new subscriber growth and each one would try to steal the same customers for each other (which means margin and price pressures). This is already happening with T-mobile and their 3000 anytime minutes for 49.95. No way anybody is making money with plans like that. And T-mobile is offering this plan to get new subscribers even though they are losing almost 50% on the deal. Things are about to get even worse folks. Telecom bottom has not yet been reached. Not by a long shot. In fact it is getting worse. JMHO.