Hi all; It was obvious to me that the Iraqis would not welcome us into Baghdad, and it was obvious to me precisely why. My suppositions were based only on my understanding of human nature. I've never been to the Middle East. A few of my recent posts on this subject are here: #reply-17990148 and #reply-17990152 ) But nevertheless, my accuracy was rather stunning, as this Washington Post article demonstrates:
Some Iraqis See A War Eroding Economic Gains
Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, Sept 16, 2002
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Sept. 14 -- The newest craze among well-to-do teenage boys here is to stalk the streets at night, finishing off the enemy with the rat-a-tat-tat of an M-1 carbine.
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For Zaid Abdul Amir, a 34-year-old computer engineer fiddling with his keyboard and surrounded by boys half his age, playing war on the computer is "something fun to do." But, like many people here, he has little desire for the real thing.
"Can we imagine living for six months without electricity, without water, without enough food?" said Amir, who was part of an Iraqi army unit that invaded Kuwait in 1990. "Of course we don't want that to happen again. We are all for a peaceful solution with the United States."
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It is difficult, if not impossible, to gauge Hussein's support among the Iraqi population. Criticizing the president, who is glorified on billboards at every major intersection, can invite arrest and imprisonment. Even so, some Iraqis have tried to convey to this correspondent -- through furtive glances, by pointing to a passage in a book or by their reluctance to launch into an immediate glorification of Hussein -- that they are eager for political change.
"Our system is not perfect," said a middle-aged man here who works as a trader. "But I cannot say more than that."
But even among those who have suggested that they are not happy with their government, there was no discernible support for U.S. military action to overthrow Hussein. Every one of more than two dozen Iraqis interviewed over the past week -- including a few people who spoke out of earshot of a minder from the Information Ministry -- bristled at the idea of a U.S. invasion to set up a new government.
"We do not want the Americans to give us a new government," the trader said. "We do not like the idea of that sort of aggression."
Amir, the computer engineer and army veteran, said he would be willing to reenlist. "Everyone here has a gun," he said. "If they don't, they at least have a knife. And if not, we'll throw stones at them like the Palestinians. Bush is crazy if he thinks the Iraqi people will welcome the Americans."
Nadhmi said that strong anti-American sentiments among ordinary people did not begin with the Persian Gulf War, but a few years later, as the sanctions began to squeeze the population. Food became scarce, as did medicines. Basic staples either were impossible to find or too expensive for anyone but the ultra-rich. The value of the dinar, Iraq's currency, against the dollar plummeted by 6,000 percent.
"The [Gulf] War was seen in certain circles not as an American aggression but as a reply to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait," Nadhmi said. "But with the continuation of sanctions, and when the sanctions started hurting the civilian population more than the government, the people started to think that Iraqi society at large is the real target of the Americans."
Nadhmi and others here also said the U.S. government's deferential treatment toward Israel and its security operations in the Palestinian territories have been seized upon by Hussein to intensify anti-American sentiments. He has made supporting Palestinian militants a key national goal, going so far as to train a militia to wrest Jerusalem from Israeli control and to make payments of $25,000, U.S. officials say, to the families of each Palestinian suicide bomber. In April, Hussein suspended crude oil exports for one month to protest Israeli occupation of Palestinian cities in the West Bank.
Meanwhile, analysts said, the slow but steady rebirth of the economy has further bolstered Hussein's image. The growth has been driven largely by an expansion in the U.N. oil-for-food program, which has allowed the country to purchase almost $37 billion of humanitarian supplies and oil-industry equipment since 1996. The most noticeable effect of the additional revenue has been an increase in the rations of rice, wheat, sugar and tea that the government provides to every Iraqi.
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washingtonpost.com
-- Carl
P.S. Just because the Iraqis would fight back against us does not mean that we cannot defeat them. It just means that the cost of running the war is likely to be higher than the US is willing to pay. It would be better if we could simply drop one bomb just on Saddam, but even then the resulting instability would be a bit of a problem. |
