Will DBeer Pursell:
Nise play on words Paul. I hadn't notised the "c" turned to an "s" until just this moment.
You do however mean, "Will De Beers buy," don't you?
OK, Let's dance.
In general I like Mr. Pursell...but how much did they pay you for that article Will?????
Well, in general, I like you too, Paul.
De Beers? They haven't talked to me much after the Winspear brouhaha.
There is no real correlation between what was paid for Snap Lake and a hypothetical sale of MPV as that was a hostile takeover.
That's true, initially. Winspear was a hostile, turned friendly, or at least, turned accepted.
There was no real choice... Put it this way, that was three years ago...this is today...DB can pull that one once, but I highly doubt they can pull it twice...
You highly doubt it? Why?
With Winspear, you had management that fought the takeover quite fiercely. With MPV, I found management offering reasons to accept a friendly offer, in advance of one being made.
You generally pay to overcome hostility. You generally give up value if you're a motivated seller. That's economics, is it not?
I also recall a slew of Winspear paper making its way from retail shareholders into the hands of arbitragers every day, at prices below the final offer price, making it pretty much a done deal.
By the way, Paul, the De Beers' final Snap Lake purchase -- from Aber -- was a friendly, not a hostile.
In my opinion, MPV is going to at least $3..as there maybe other companies that will make MPV pay a fair share to keep their prices up and court action from common shareholders, as to why other areas of the property have yet to be drilled significantly making DB interested...
If Mountain Province sells, it will sell for whatever the sellers and buyer are willing to settle on. So far, I see no publicly declared buyers, and a whole truckload of retail shareholders taking up bandwidth chatting with each other about how eager they are to be taken out.
That's not good, given what I know about the laws of supply and demand, and given what I know about the benefits of keeping your desire to sell hidden from the potential buyer.
If you're looking for a conspiracy theory, or a De Beers patsy, investors need look no further than themselves. The market dictates what a stock is worth, and right now that's less than $1.20 per share.
If war breaks out which it looks possible, this company is going to be worth enormous amounts of money...Why?
Yeah, why?
Bioterrorism is apparently here and big cities are going to be vulnerable.city real estate down significantly in price...cottage country real estate, gold,diamonds water and food are going uppppppppppppppppppppppp....
U.S. currrency could be in trouble if real terror strikes america....dirty nuke...e.t.c. Diamonds could become the real currency...difficult to counterfiet, difficult to mine, appears prescious,,,easy to smuggle,hide and carry....
OK, so if any or all of that scary stuff happens, what would you want to own?
Diamonds, or TSE-minted diamond stock?
Diamonds, TSE-minted diamond stock in a producer like BHP, or (imminently) Aber, or in a project hoping to be advanced to feasibility, then the arduous environmental process, then construction.....
But enough....
If you're suggesting that De Beers will pay $3 a share for MPV, that's very possible, if the economics of the project increase enough to warrant it. Maybe even more, I suppose, if the increase is extraordinary, or if a large, rich find is made elsewhere on the property.
That was the point of my entire article. Watch and evaluate as things progress. I used a 20-per-cent increase. Jan Vandersande suggests the increase could be more than that. It might...or it might not.
Another point I made was that values increase as production gets closer. It's the time value of money thing that Mr. Vandersande was talking about. Net present value and all that good stuff.
The earlier an offer is made for MPV, or any stock in a similar position, the lower the offer would be expected to be.
But I'm sure you all understand that.
Here's what I didn't understand with Snap Lake, and what I understand even less today: Why are shareholders so willing to sell their interest in a potentially rich deposit, for what seems to be a small fraction of what could be obtained by actually mining the deposit?
I know, I know...it's the time value of money. It may also be the Canadian way.
Regards,
WillP |
