Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5395)	9/15/2002 9:18:01 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95391

This one is the 4 year comparison. 10/8/98 9/13/02 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG NVLS* 7.30 23.85 227 0.72 33 23 1.47 KLAC* 10.94 31.65 189 1.83 17 23 0.75 MXIM 11.28 27.90 147 1.31 21 25 0.85 AMAT* 5.59 13.03 133 0.49 27 20 1.31 LLTC 10.50 22.52 114 0.98 23 25 0.92 XLNX 8.64 18.10 109 0.75 24 25 0.97 NSM 8.00 13.19 65 0.55 24 17 1.41 TXN 11.81 19.00 61 0.76 25 20 1.25 TER* 7.82 12.30 57 -0.04 20 LSI 5.57 7.63 37 0.42 18 20 0.91 LSCC 5.03 6.83 36 0.33 21 25 0.84 ALTR 8.13 10.21 26 0.40 26 25 1.02 MU 13.31 16.50 24 0.39 42 20 2.12 AMD 7.00 7.21 3 -0.63 15 BRCM 15.44 15.25 -1 0.29 53 37 1.44 INTC 19.61 16.03 -18 0.75 21 18 1.22 MOT 14.88 11.51 -23 0.46 25 12 2.09 TOTALS 170.85 272.71 60 9.76 28 SOX-X 189.90 280.52 48 COMPQX1419.12 1291.40 -9 *In Semi-Equip Group

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5395)	9/16/2002 8:56:47 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95391

From Briefing.com: Business Inventories stronger than expected. The 0.4% increase in July inventories was a bit stronger than expected and suggests that there is some additional upside potential for Q3 GDP; however, this report is not a market-mover and no impact is expected. BofA cuts estimates for Taiwan Semi, United Micro. In addition to Pru's semi est cuts (7:43), Banc of America cuts FY02-03 ests for TSM and UMC based on the belief that utilization rates will decline for the next two qtrs largely due to unusual weakness in the consumer electronics segment; cuts TSM FY02 est to $0.24 from $0.26 and FY03 to $0.35 from $0.40, and cuts UMC FY02 to $0.10 from $0.14 and FY03 to $0.17 from $0.23 (FY03 ests well below consensus for both co's). 7:43AM Prudential cuts estimates for select chip co's : Prudential cuts Dec qtr and 2003 ests for ANAD, BRCM, EMKR, LSI, MCHP, PSEM, STM, TUNE, TXN, ATML, EXAR, NVDA, PMCS, and VTSS; firm sees their previous Q4 sequential rev growth forecast of mid-single digits as unlikely, given: 1) continued weaker than seasonal PC trends, 2) continued weak wireline communications, and 3) increasing evidence of digital consumer sluggishness; for 2003, firm now estimates mid-teens growth vs previous assumption of 20%. General Commentary When the dreaded month of September began, the market/sector was facing numerous hurdles including the threat of a double-dip in the economy, the unknown of 9/11, preannouncement season and rising tensions between the US and Iraq... Well, we're half way through the month, and so far the Nasdaq Composite has lost 1.8%... Not good, but all things considered, not horrible. Though the economic data over the past couple of weeks hasn't been uniformly bullish, strength in Retail Sales, Employment, Productivity and Factory Orders data pretty much debunked the double-dip scenario... Meanwhile, the one-year anniversary of 9/11 passed without any additional acts of terrorism. Which brings us to the preannouncement, or warnings, season... As you can see from Briefing.com's Guidance page, 351 companies have guided estimates lower for Q3 already, with 127 coming from the tech sector... With a few weeks left to go, it looks as though more firms will end up issuing negative preannouncements this quarter than last, though Q302 will be better than Q301, when a total of 722 companies -- 337 of which were tech firms -- guided lower. However, it should be noted that the sector/market has held up reasonably well in the face of some early warnings from the likes of Nokia (sales only), Lucent, Tellabs, Sun Micro and Novellus... Given the guarded nature of recent conference calls and continued weakness in business investment, look for the pace of warnings to pick up in the weeks to come... If traders continue to shrug off earnings warnings and the sector simply treads water into month's end, the tech-heavy Nasdaq will be well positioned to resume the recovery rally... If not, well, July lows here we come. Robert Walberg finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+ANAD+ATML+BRCM+EMKR+EXAR+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MCHP+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVDA+NVLS+PMCS+PSEM+STM+TER+TSM+TUNE+TXN+UMC+VTSS+XLNX&d=t Thanks for the additional tables Don. Much appreciated! RtS