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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kapkan4u who wrote (88144)	9/16/2002 12:06:21 AM
From: ptanner	Respond to of 275872

Kap, re: discussion actual AMD business and financial conditions Yes, it does seem oddly "off-topic." <g> Over at Ace's a poster noted that the Fujitsu HD recall was limited to only 300,000 out of 10M drives. This made the unit cost estimate a little more believable (from about $10 to $300). Fujitsu is no longer in the desktop HD market and perhaps this event reflects that this was not a good business for their continued participation. However, Fujitsu does still make notebook drives so this might have been a desire to leave the most competitive portion of the market and not based on technical or manufacturing capabilities. If FASL starts to unravel... since this component of the business isn't a total disaster there should be other parties interested in acquiring an interest. It would certainly be a better investment than Hynix. -PT

To: kapkan4u who wrote (88144)	9/16/2002 12:22:23 AM
From: Eric K.	Respond to of 275872

Re: the financial side of AMD's business AMD's financial position is, somewhat paradoxically, not really germane to predicting its ST- or LT-performance and survival. The reason I say this is that AMD's financial situation is exceedingly contingent on its technical position and on the strength of the semi segments in which it participates. AMD went from a -30% profit margin to a +20% profit margin in two quarters based primarily on the success of Athlon, coupled with a flash boom. There are very few other established, 30+ year history companies that have this kind of variability in results over such a short period. Basically, we can sit here and play with existing rates of cash burn and calculate how long AMD can last, but, realistically, it's quite irrelevant to where the stock will be in one year. The reality is, AMD's overall financial position has been crappy for the last ten years. Although book value has varied a lot from year to year vis a vis stock price, it's never been very high relative to the amount of money AMD is capable of losing in a quarter. AMD's performance over the next year is directly correlated with Hammer, with maybe a +-30% multiplier in overall position based on flash performance.