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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rascal who wrote (44509)9/16/2002 9:08:33 PM
From: Win Smith  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
This isn't exactly a prediction, but here's an earlier take, circa March 6 when the inspections stories were in the news.

this story hints at what could conceivable be a flaw in the much-leaked Bush war plan of kicking off the invasion over the inspection issue. What if Saddam Hussein has a glimmer of rationality to go with his self-preservation instincts? What if he figures out that W isn't kidding, and complies fully? Rationally, I'm not sure he has much to lose. Given how long it took, for comparison, Pakistan to develop nukes, with years of wink, nudge official US certification that they weren't, and given the fact that a lot of Iraqi stuff was destroyed post - Gulf War, I think there's maybe pretty good odds Iraq isn't particular close to a working nuke. Aside from the question of what good an untested, maybe or maybe not functional nuke would do Saddam anyway. The other "WMD"s don't seem to be effective enough to be worth the effort of trying to preserve them. So what if Saddam just buries what naughty bits he can and says, "go ahead, look all you want"?

The presumption of rationality here may be questionable, but there are some hints in this article.
#reply-17158861

I'm not quite ready to declare rationality here yet, but it looks like may be back to the drawing board for Perle, Wolfowitz and friends. The best laid plans and all that.

Iraq Agrees to Readmit Inspectors, U.N. Says nytimes.com
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

UNITED NATIONS -- Iraq unconditionally accepted the return of U.N. weapons inspectors late Monday, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said.

"I can confirm to you that I have received a letter from the Iraqi authorities conveying its decision to allow the return of inspectors without conditions to continue their work."



To: Rascal who wrote (44509)9/17/2002 12:46:38 AM
From: SirRealist  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Good call Rascal. I'd long ago determined that Carl's positions had the odds on their side.

The only point where I differ is I'm not yet certain it won't still end with a war. I'm sufficiently cynical to believe that evidence can be manufactured, if the admin is bent on regime change no matter what.