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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (44567)	9/17/2002 1:29:25 AM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 281500

>>Do you really mean to imply that Saddam is an opponent who scares the United States? He don't scare me.<< I believe he scares Israel. Not because it fears defeat, but because it fears losses of life. He also scares fellow Arab governments, who fear loss of power.

To: Bilow who wrote (44567)	9/17/2002 8:38:30 AM
From: aladin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Carl, When Saddam threatened to fire the oil fields last time around a lot of folks blinked. What if he held a small nuclear force and using short range missles (already in stock) his trump card was nuking the ME and Caspian reserves? This would allow him to act with impunity regionally. This is his goal - he loves the diversion Israel gives, but he probably could care less. Yes we could still beat him - but at what cost? Not so much to us as to our allies and the world economy. My original point wasn't that diplomacy was going to work - but that it would never work without a reasonable stick. Carrots with no stick only train the animal to want more :-) Saffire has a good column this morning about how he sees this playing out - Inspections - followed by Iraqi pushback - followed by our going in with UN approval. John