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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (44607)	9/16/2002 11:40:38 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 281500

Hi Nadine Carroll; Re: "Let's try a much more probable scenario, a repeat of history: Saddam thinks he can pretend to agree, then impede the inspectors from finding his labs while he finishes assembling his nukes. The labs are all mobile now and much harder to find." The question at hand, as far as I am concerned, is whether or not the US will invade Iraq. What Saddam has demonstrated is the ability to diplomatically prevent this. From this point of view, history has already failed to repeat itself. When Saddam invaded Kuwait, he was given an ultimatum and he didn't pull out. The result: war. Now, even before Bush has had an opportunity to get the UN Security Council to issue any sort of statement, Saddam agrees to inspections. This is a change. As to whether or not Saddam has WMDs, who cares. My prediction for the likely course of history: (a) Iraq eventually gets a clean bill of WMD from the inspectors. (b) Iraq petitions for and receives an end to the various UN sanctions and stuff. (c) Iraq, like every other major Arab country, and Israel and Iran too, begins work on WMDs, or even acquires them directly from China or whoever. (d) The world continues on its track that it has followed for thousands of years. The countries that develop effective new weapons get a temporary monopoly on them, but eventually the other countries copy them. It's inevitable that someday, Iraq will own the same kinds of weapons that Israel has. *This is a basic fact of history. Humans imitate humans. There is no such thing as a permanent military advantage.* -- Carl