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To: John Carson who wrote (3539)	9/17/2002 9:49:26 AM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 10157

I think the S&P 100 dates from 1976. He's talking about the S&P 500. Yes, October 1974 was the bottom, and December 1974 the retest. Interestingly, there was a 20% rally between the two bottoms, I believe.

To: John Carson who wrote (3539)	9/17/2002 10:17:07 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

I don't have the S&P 100 or the VIX data that far back. The volatilities for the S&P 100 and the S&P 500 are fairly close. It's currently 33 1/2 for the S&P 100 and 31 1/2 for the S&P 500. I would expect the VIX to be fairly near the actual volatility unless there's a spike low in the underlying index. I don't think one can make the conclusion re: long-term bull or bear. The S&P 500 volatility was only in the low teens at the August 82 bottom since the market was basing sideways. I suspect the VIX was probably high relative to the volatility of the underlying at that time.