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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: frankw1900 who wrote (44935)	9/17/2002 10:15:58 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Frankw: I agree, but I'd also think off-the-record lobbying by trading partners Russia, China and France also helped tip Saddaam.

To: frankw1900 who wrote (44935)	9/17/2002 10:25:41 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi frankw1900; Re: "Carl, What tipped Saddam over was the Saudis saying they'd support military action if the UN went for it." Maybe, but I doubt it. The whole Arab world has been asking for Saddam to accept inspections for months. Iraq's also been talking to the other members of the UN Security Council. The implication is that with Saddam allowing inspections, the United Nations would not resolve for an American attack. That meant that Saudi Arabia, having likely got early word that a letter was being drafted, had freedom to announce that they'd support a UN resolution (that they knew wasn't going to allow full scale war). Re: "It's almost a sure thing that he'll try and weasel out of the "no conditions."" I agree. Re: "If I were Bush, I'd let things roll along on the inspections scene and continue to grow clear relations with Iraqis in the North and South - keep giving them materiel and technical aid and getting them to talk to each other." If you are aware of any materiel that has been given to either the rebels in the North or the rebels in the South, do share. I would think that the Turks would be rather appalled at the thought of arming the Kurds, and in the South, I would think that the Islamic Fundamentalists in Iran are doing the supplying. Re: "It's not really great news if you're an Iraqi with family murdered, imprisoned, tortured or exiled by Saddam and if you're an Iraqi looking at the prospect of more of the same." One of the facts of the modern world is the constant exaggeration of death rates. I doubt that Saddam has to kill much more than 1000 to 5,000 people per year in order to stay in power. Compared to the number killed in a major war, these are insignificant numbers. (Of course if it's you or yours it's a big number.) The number of people murdered in the US every year is significantly larger, and the number killed in auto accidents is huge. But all these numbers are tiny, tiny, tiny compared to the numbers that would die in a complete US conquering and occupation of the Middle East. -- Carl