To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (44955 ) 9/17/2002 10:28:59 PM From: Nadine Carroll Respond to of 281500 debka's analysis of Iraq:Notwithstanding the poor psychological profiles often painted for him, Saddam Hussein is above all a realist. He is also deeply influenced by Muslim military thinking which holds that, when a Muslim general runs into an unbroken wall of resistance that he cannot overcome, it is his duty to effect a tactical retreat. At the first crack in the wall, however, he is bound to resume his attack. This tenet explains why, after four years of fighting off the return of the arms inspectors tooth and nail, Saddam abruptly relented. He did so when he ran into the unbroken wall of the George Bush’s determination. Meanwhile, he is wily enough to appreciate that the palaver over conditions for the arms inspectors to return to Iraq will give him time enough to hide his forbidden weapons and equipment – either in the country or across the border, until the heat dies down, possibly even to Iran. When the inspectors have finished their task or had enough, he will bring the equipment back and resume full production of weapons of mass destruction, just as he did the moment he saw the backs of the arms inspectors in 1998. ...Saddam therefore hopes against hope that he too will survive the mighty American war machine if he acts prudently. What he has succeeded in doing by his volte face on the UN arms inspectors is to throw in doubt UN endorsement for US military action. But even if the security council adopts the Russian view and sends the inspectors back, the Americans will almost certainly press ahead with the campaign they have begun. It is clear to Washington that the Russians, like the Saudis and French, are not seriously intent on holding the Americans back, but rather trying to get them over a barrel on the post-war share-out of the spoils of victory. The name of this game is oil. So, while the haggling centers on the conditions under which an American offensive against Baghdad is permissible, no one lifts a finger, including Saddam, to stop US and British warplanes from destroying one by one Iraq’s air force and air defenses command and control centers – an operation that DEBKAfile first began tracking in early August and which US secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld confirmed on Monday September 16. The US-led air force is also systematically wiping out the command and communications centers of Iraq’s missile units and its air fleet for delivering chemical and biological warfare materials. These raids answer only one description: acts of war. The same term applies to the buildup of US, British, Turkish and Jordanian special forces in northern and western Iraq, and their advance up to the hills overlooking the two northern oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. The diplomatic fur may continue to fly, but so too will the military operations.