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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (5395)9/18/2002 9:11:49 AM
From: RinConRonRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
>>Especially when the US seems determined to wage war on half of the world at a time when they are in a prolonged economic depression AND when their budget deficit is soaring<<
Interesting point of view. Waging war on half the world means attacking three billion people. I have not heard that strategy put forth. Perhaps you can show it to us. Or do you want to simply accept 9/11 and other atrocities as the cost of doing business as Americans?



To: zonder who wrote (5395)9/18/2002 9:17:09 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favorRead Replies (4) | Respond to of 306849
 
<<So I am looking for stuff with real-estate exposure to short. First on the list are highly leveraged real-estate lenders.>>

Hi zonder, welcome to the thread. A good place to start your quest is the 10 components of the Residential Real Estate Crash Index. They were selected to give a broad exposure to the residential real estate sector. Among home finance related plays, the private mortgage insurers (PMI, RDN and MTG) look particularly ripe because they're exposed to the segment of the mortgage market with the weakest equity holdings. FNM and FRE are interesting here, both because they've penetrated technical support and because it appears that their risks are accelerating due to prepayments brought on by the refinancing boom. Builders will get it in the neck as well, but it might take a bit longer. If/when rates start back up, the entire list will be a smoking crater, but in the meantime expect credit quality deterioration to exact a big toll on the lenders.

DISCLOSURE: Short FRE, CCR, PMI, NCEN and PHM.

Regards,

Patron



To: zonder who wrote (5395)9/19/2002 7:17:59 AM
From: J. P.Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
FWIW, I'm in the tech side of the collections business, and we are seeing demand increasing significantly. Our customers (credit card collectors, lenders, and collectors who buy bad debt and other types of collectors) are doing very well and expanding their operations (except for the lenders, they are simply expanding their collections operations).


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