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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: longdong_63 who wrote (19162)	9/18/2002 5:37:13 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

or a couple more quarters, no more what then, another move in TEN yields toward 3% flat? and another round of REFI's? the curveball here is that lower rates produce even more distortions throughout the entire economy production moves more toward durables and away from consumables asset inflation goes more berserk, thus producing more systemic risk and conditions arise whereby even lower rates ensue lending becomes even more problematic, grinding to a halt I see this happening already on a grand scale where does it end? ... I will tell you when our rates resemble Japan's the end of the road is 0% rates we have them now in automobile purchases who'd a thunk it a few years ago? at some point leaders will have to conclude ENOUGH IS ENOUGH and we will see the economy contract and go into recession imagine a spring and summer where trees grow without an autumn and winter??? where weak branches are not pruned by nature's winds??? what an ugly landscape that would engineer!!! laws of economics wont allow our situation to continue much longer (given our foreign capital dependence) any more than nature will allow grotesque plant formations the most likely scenario is something unforeseen, and certainly not written in leading publications A VETO BY THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, DELIVERED BY FOREIGNERS the veto will be a dollar abandonment, refusal to support this utter charade any longer than endured already we will soon see rising interest rates amidst a weakening economy it is the currency market VETO, via the USDollar the next leg down is coming very soon / jim

To: longdong_63 who wrote (19162)	9/18/2002 10:24:39 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

[". Prepayments on the rise "] ...remember WAMU getting hit recently due to their pre-payments ? All these Mortgage Backed Assets get sold with both pre-payment assumptions AND deliquency assumptions built into their models... pre-payments are at record levels and now we've learned deliquencies AND foreclosures are as well... and I GUARANDAMNTEE you that - NO ONE... made accurate assumptions in either area. Banks are being allowed to "get well" via these lucrative spreads... but, I'm not so sure that another Refi-Boom is around the corner - even at 5.5 to 6.0% - because EQUITY has been sucked out via prior refinances & closing costs being nearly always rolled into refi's... Anything over 80% LTV - get's whacked with Mortgage Insurance (PMI) and that negates a substantial degree of further rate reductions. Equity... especially finding existing Refi-Candidates that are at less than 80% LTV - is getting very difficult. Any future wave of potential refi's at 5.5 yo 6.0% will be vastly negated by the effect of PMI imho. Equity is gone... vanished. It's a market that will be capped by inadequate equity and not by rate... At DOW 5000 - we will see 4.75% @ 15 years imho... but, few will be refinancing at those levels - because they already max'd out at 90-95% LTV via the round of refinancing at 6.5 to 7.0 and 7.0 to 7.5 prior to that... the Refinance Market has literally been churned & burned. Middle America does not have the positive population, or wage demographics to keep the Real Estate Refinance Boom going... they may be able to keep Pyramiding Refiuances in places like Boston as long as property values keep going up annually at a double digit pace... but, not in Peoria Il, Grand Rapids Mi, or in Ft. Wayne In.... the game is soon over. The Fed can "goose" a little more juice out of the refi game... but, not for much longer...imho. Greenspan literally "MORTGAGED" a generation here...and did so to bail out the Wall Street Insiders & Rubinite Investment Bankers who via the IPO sham, Tech/Telcom Scam and King Dollar Prop Job... literally allowed the greatest transfer of wealth in hisotry; to happen before our very eye's... from Pension Funds, 401K's and from the pockets of Mr. & Mrs. Main Streets to the pockets of the partners at Goldman and the friends of Rubin... the Investment Bankers... those that wrote all the Internet IPO paper... those that put together all the TTM Bond Deals and the ones that created the Enron-esque off balance sheet scams... We're lucky the Bubble popped before these bloodsuckers got ahold of our Social Security System and Ma & Pa Kettle's retirment money... or, we would ultimately have Food Lines like the Great Depression. Wall St must NEVER be allowed to get their hands on the Social Security System... NEVER.