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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (19191)	9/18/2002 9:53:00 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

ns. They say religion is the last refuge of scoundrels. I'd amend that saying, for the purposes of our discussion, to wit: IF the scoundrels happen to be politicians and central bankers? The last refuge is GOLD rather than god:.) In other worlds the biggest surprise for us gold bulls may be how long they can drag out the inevitable revaluation. And oh how politicians love to conjure up the most Byzantine schemes to delay and delay. So, that's another reason (as is characteristic of Bull markets) the biggest gold romp will probably be in the later stages. At this point the fat lady is only clearing her throat. Your point about wages is a good one. And perhaps it's not been given the emphasis here that it deserves. Do think it's important to make the distinction between the divergent price behavior in necessities vs luxuries and non-essentials during a deflation. And I tried to stress the often overlooked fact that key commodity indices are heavily weighted toward the necessities. The necessity items can't weaken appreciably in price until unemployment reaches much higher levels. And, as demand for labor declines that's when we're likely to see a lot more of kind of wage stagnation or even pay cuts that you brought up. Interacting with an accelerating meltdown in the twin nightmares of debt and derivatives it's not hard to foresee the kind of severe drop in aggregate demand that begins to reduce prices even for necessities. By then EVERYONE will recognize it's a deflation. Now, even a year after I wrote my first big post about deflation here, only a small percentage of the population would agree with me. And besides.... It's only MVVHO<g> Best regards, Isopatch