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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (5453)	9/19/2002 11:51:16 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95420

Remember that book-to-bill is a lagging indicator How is the Book To Bill a lagging indicator? Bookings look forward, and by definition this means it can not be termed a lagging indicator. Because it is a 3 month moving average it may not be the best indicator of future health, but in no way can it be termed a lagging indicator. Do these people even think before writing these notes? •Year-end trade looking less likely. With H202 dampened relative to normal seasonal patterns, we believe SCE bookings are poised for a 3-quarter downturn, with trough in 1Q03. Our visit to Asia confirms our belief that capex will continue to have a downward bias, putting pressure on SCE revenue estimates which still average 24% growth in 2003. With prospects for a recovery pushing out and dampening, we remain underweight SCE. So they recommend waiting to buy until the Recovery is in the headlights and prices are 100-200% higher? Brilliant, sign me up. Listen to these people at your own risk. They are serving somebody, but ask if that somebody is you.

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (5453)	9/19/2002 1:07:36 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

Thanks for the post. CSFB has been very negative on the semi-equips for some time. When it didn't turn out as bad as they predicted some quick rationalization on their part was in order. The post from yesterday, Message 18007562 shows the start of the 4th up cycle since 1995. In looking at the 3 prior up cycles, there was always a preliminary upsurge in BtB, then a "fallback", and then a final upswing before the final slide into the negative cycle. The present cycle is coming down off the initial surge. CSFB is predicting that the dip will not occur this time, but rather the BtB is going to continue on its present downward course into a negative cycle. The next 1 to 3 months is going to give an answer as to whether they are right or not. Don