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To: Joe Stocks who wrote (43532)9/19/2002 2:45:58 PM
From: DanZ  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
Joe,

The spin-off won't necessarily increase the supply of RRI because Reliant Energy already owns the shares of RRI that they will give to REI Shareholders. They aren't issuing new stock, so the number of shares outstanding won't increase. Of course REI Shareholders could sell the RRI that they are given, but it is my belief that many have already done that by shorting RRI. That is one possible explanation for the significant underperformance of RRI relative to REI the last couple of months. Even if REI Shareholders don't hold most of the short position, I would think that the shorts took their positions with the spin-off in mind, and plan to cover into any selling by REI Shareholders. Last I checked the short interest was over 5 million shares, and I don't think that the stock has much downside from 3.50.

I also don't see any risk that RRI won't be able to refinance their debt. What bank would be stupid enough to force a solvent company that covers their interest by 8 to 10 times into bankruptcy? Personally I think that RRI is a better buy than REI...but isn't that why you like REI better? lol



To: Joe Stocks who wrote (43532)9/19/2002 2:47:44 PM
From: Larry S.  Respond to of 53068
 
I think the spin-off will be a non-event, and most owners will just hold their new shares. there will be some unwinding of arbitrages that i certainly don't understand. I own some REI and will just hold it and the new RRI. larry