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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (147834)	9/19/2002 5:46:36 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

The problem with disarmament is that it does not have any real meaning. It does not matter if he has no chemical or biological weapons -- these are basically useless to him and he can give them up without losing any advantage -- getting rid of these is what the inspectors can accomplish at most. The real issue is the development of nuclear CAPABILITY -- not even the actual possession of bombs is really at issue so long as he has the capability of quickly assembling them at some point in the future. Our dilemma is that we have a clear rationale for regime change which we either cannot or will not voice -- it is not in our interests to accept a hostile regime with nuclear CAPABILITY in the middle of the oil patch. But how do you say, under international law, that a country that has no nuclear weapons but which has a nuclear weapons capability is an imminent threat? Under these circumstances, invading Iraq will tear at the basic fabric of international law that keeps countries from invading one another -- the principle that was upheld by our "liberation" of Iraq. Like it or not, Saddam and Bin Laden are achieving quite a bit as measured by the damage to international institutions and institutional arrangements that have taken decades to develop. Many of these institutions are in need of change -- but I doubt that having Saddam and bin Laden driving the process is going to take us in the right direction.