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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (5488)	9/19/2002 10:02:29 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95427

Good post Kirk. What you had to say points out once again something that I have hammered at very hard for anyone interested in listening... These stocks tend to move together Up or down. Now obviously buying the best of a group of stocks can reduce your losses or increase your profits but they still move together. I intend to buy more stocks for a brief bounce but I would not hold any of them long for long until we get through September, perhaps October, beyond the expensing of options issue and past a successful invasion of Iraq. RtS

To: Kirk © who wrote (5488)	9/20/2002 1:30:56 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95427

My strategy is Buy Low, Sell High, but you can't buy at the bottom or sell at the top. Therefore, the worse time is between buy low and the bottom. That time is now and the bottom is moving down away from my buys. For some perspective, in OCT '98 my portfolio value was 1/2 the value in the summer of '97 + added cash. I was down 27% from cost. Today, I am at 48% of the high this spring and I am down 24% from cost. Between OCT '98 and Mar '00, my portfolio went up six times even though I was at 36% cash by then. I remember the ASYT low of $5-6 and high of $134, and I conclude that there was no relationship between the two prices except excesses. The technology business is difficult and so is the market. I expected to be sitting with paper losses. I knew I will not be able to predict how big the paper losses will be or how long I will have them. The only saving grace is the quality of the companies I am holding and their future prospects. I realize I paid more for them than I would have paid for other companies, but I believe I will be ahead in the long run. Time will tell and Don will chart the progress.