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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (66092)	9/20/2002 12:56:55 AM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, I read earlier the the front end B 2 B was actually 1.26. I will try and find that source. On another note, Schaeffer's Midday Options Update Features AMAT CINCINNATI, Sept. 19 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's Schaeffer's Midday Options Update features Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT), quote.bloomberg.com (from lower in the article) Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT) tops today's most-active puts list with some activity at its in-the-money September and October 15 strikes. Volume across all exchanges numbers about 10,000 contracts for each strike so far today. Amid this activity, two blocks of 6,350 contracts each executed at both the September and October strike. This appears to be the rolling out of a front-month position to a back-month position, which is a pretty typical move for expiration weeks. Basically, the option player is giving the position more time to play out by moving it to a different expiration month.

To: Gottfried who wrote (66092)	9/20/2002 9:04:57 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Respond to of 70976

G, at least you still have the dogs. When things get really bad... Well you know what the early arctic explorers had to do when they ran out of food. Apologies if I have offended any dog lovers, animal rights activists, etc.

To: Gottfried who wrote (66092)	9/20/2002 4:46:06 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

<<SEMI charts [look at price vs btb or vs bookings. It's different alright>> Before the last report, we had 8 consecutive month-on-month increases in bookings. This last report could be considered noise-in-the-signal; it takes several months to say the trend has changed. But the collapse in the stock price, to new multi-year lows, could be foreshadowing a re-collapse in bookings. Remember how, way back in mid-2000, the stock price collapsed while bookings were still hitting new highs? It looked like a disconnect, for a while. I believe the relationship between bookings and stock prices has not been broken. It doesn't make any sense to me, that there could be a year-long time difference between when bookings and stock prices trough. In early-mid 2002, there was a hiatus in pushouts and capex estimate cuts, but now it's started up again. I still think the contract manufacturers are the bellwethers (or canaries in the mine). Cuts in capex plans by them is a worrisome sign. Reevalusting things after my long vacation, I think my decision to go back to BuyAndHold this summer, was a mistake. Not just because stocks have gone down, but because there are multiple new signs of a W-shaped economic downturn: 1. the recent weakness in housing, in spite of record low interest rates 2. continued earnings warnings (I thought we were past the worst of it, but it looks like I was being Exuberant) 3. falling consumer confidence (again, I thought we'd seen the worst) 4. the government has done all they can do: Fed Funds below 2%, deficit spending of $200B in 2002. They can't do anything more, so there will be no (more) help there. I think the semi cycle is going to be linked to the general economic cycle (it hasn't, in the past). So, I'm a bit more willing to sell, than I was a couple of months ago. Still waiting for 20, to get out even; a double off the lows is not unreasonable, even if it's just one more bear rally. I can be patient with AMAT, because I bought stock, not LEAPs. JS@livingondogfood.com