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To: pogbull who wrote (6827)	9/20/2002 11:11:12 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

I esp liked "life-expectancy" adjustments, clever / jw

To: pogbull who wrote (6827)	9/20/2002 12:06:06 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

Canada cited as U.S. trade deficit shrinks by 6% Cars, food, feeds, drinks Peter Morton, Financial Post Thursday, September 19, 2002 WASHINGTON - A sharp increase in exports to Canada and Mexico of U.S.-made automobiles helped shrink the U.S. trade deficit by 6% in July, the largest decline since the U.S. dollar began to weaken earlier this year. The U.S. deficit fell to US$34.6-billion from US$36.8- billion in June as manufacturers also managed to increase exports of aircraft, food, feeds and beverages, the U.S. Commerce Department said yesterday. "This confirms a gradual recovery in U.S. exports," said Jerry Jasinowski, president of the U.S. National Association of Manufacturers. "Since so much of U.S. auto trade is with our NAFTA partners, it is likely that a significant source of this export growth was an increase in North American auto production prompted by the recent 0% financing offered by U.S. auto retailers," he said. U.S. exports increased for the fifth consecutive month in July to US$83.2-billion, up 1.3% on June and the highest since June, 2001. Exports of automobiles and auto parts were a record $7.09-billion, while exports of food, feeds and beverages rose slightly to US$4.3-billion, still the highest level since November, 1997. U.S. aerospace companies exported US$3.3-billion in civilian aircraft in July, up nearly one-third from the previous month and the most since October, 1998. U.S. exports to Canada came in at a surplus of US$4.4-billion compared to a deficit of US$3.5- billion in June while American exports to its other NAFTA partner, Mexico, were a positive US$3.4-billion after posting a deficit of US$3.2-billion the previous month. On the other side, imports fell 1% to US$117.8-billion -- the first drop after six months of consecutive increases. U.S. exporters have been pushing for a weaker dollar to make them more competitive internationally. The dollar is down, in trade weighted terms, about 4% since February and Paul O'Neill, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, said this week the dollar is trading "in a range that seems reasonable." While the U.S. trade deficit fell, the consumer price index jumped in August, rising by 0.3%, mainly because of higher prices for gasoline, tobacco products and clothing. Despite the increase, economists do not believe the jump will prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy next week at its meeting of the Open Market Committee. "I can't see anything here that would influence the Fed," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. in Boston. "It's still right for them to do nothing and sound reassuring." pmorton@nationalpost.com

To: pogbull who wrote (6827)	9/20/2002 12:40:41 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

The Inflation Problem, by Steve Saville 20 September, 2002 [Saville makes up for previous lousy thesis on deflation] 321gold.com four reasons: - commodities on the rise, dollar in decline - 20 months of money supply growth working thru system - Fed will remain in easing mode, esp with debt collapsing - the bond bubble is spewing money like a fountain an excerpt: A fourth reason is that the recent rally in the bond market all but guarantees strong money-supply growth over the next few months. This is because, in the current US 'credit bubble economy', rising bond prices are inflationary in that every substantial fall in long-term interest rates precipitates another surge in the total quantity of mortgage debt. The below chart illustrates this point. The blue line on the chart shows an index designed to reflect the level of mortgage financing/re-financing activity. The green arrows on the chart have been drawn by us to show the direction of US Government bond prices. US home owners/buyers, as a group, will eventually reach a point where they will be unwilling or unable to take on more debt, but that point has clearly not yet arrived. They have responded to the latest bond market rally in the same way that they responded to every bond market rally over the past 7 years - by borrowing more money.