Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (26937)	9/20/2002 11:03:23 AM
From: Kayaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196381

Although some of the concerns about inventory buildup seem a bit extreme (CIBC) it seems reasonable to me that there will be a peak in the 1X upgrade cycle at SOME point. Will that peak occur in the Dec quarter? I dunno. So somewhere there will be a sequential quarterly drop that the market may not take too kindly. GS (below) thinks it will occur in March. To offset a stronger Dec qtr, we are now modeling for a steeper 10% sequential falloff in March. Although we continue to look for a possible slowdown in orders, it appears the opposite QUALCOMM, Inc. September 20, 2002 is occurring and we will need to closely monitor the Christmas selling season to better judge whether our FY03 numbers are indeed as conservative as they currently appear.

To: slacker711 who wrote (26937)	9/20/2002 9:13:07 PM
From: voop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196381

I was also found the GS review from Caxton to be interesting 1)The company noted that the MSM3100 has a good gross margin structure given its cost reduction; it maintains higher gross margin that the MSM5100 given the MSM5100’s larger die size, which has yet to be cost reduced. Hmm...so the increased ASP from the 5100 is offset by the expenses to develop so that the 3100 is better for the bottom line while the 5100 makes the top line better. Is anyone factoring this in their models as Q makes a higher proportion of 1X chips? 2) India launching with 1x Somehow I missed this in trying to convert Indian currency and follow political tradewinds. I wonder if Unicom wishes they did this. 3) Internet Launchpad features (including CMX, which is reportedly being required by SprintPCS) WAIT! I thought these guys are avoiding BREW and would then offer some Nokey-Dokey handsets with tenuous 1X chipsets. Well, I do not see CMX as searchable at www.nokia.com. So maybe PCS keeps buying sprint chipsets either with or without BREW and can enable later if the write once run somewhere hopefully does indeed disappoint. 4) Additionally, Qualcomm maintains manufacturing relationships with Texas Instruments and Motorola. I did not know this. Not sure if it is too much Nutrasweet or what but I was surprised. 5)Alltel is reportedly trialing in a few cities currently and is expected to launch before Christmas. news to me. They were supposed to be starting in my back yard Oct 2001 and they buried that under the rug since 6) it believes it is helping handset manufacturers drive down handset BOM by introducing numerous features including DCR and support for NAND flash, which is reportedly 30% of the cost of traditional NOR flash used in cell phones. This is something different than the Zif I assume but I do not know what this is. Anyone? Voop