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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techanalyst1 who wrote (13946)	9/20/2002 4:31:13 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 57684

What Year Is It Anyway? By: Ed Bugos, GoldenBar.com International Market Analysis What if the major stock market averages were to trade in a wide range over the next 15 to 20 years, between 6000 and 12000ish on the Dow for instance? Could you name that tune? We can. It's the seventies theme where the 1966 top at 990 proved to be the secular bull market top capping the prior 20-year bull market cycle that began arguably after WWII. Although it was challenged three more times before finally giving way to the bulls in 1983 (it was briefly pierced when bulls printed the Dow at 1051.70 at the beginning of 1973), it's hard to argue that the 1966 top wasn't the most important one for long term investors (see chart below). The 15-year periods between 1966 to 1981 and from 1931 to 1946 are the only two in the 20th century where the averages are recorded to have traded in a wide sideways range for as long. In the thirties this action occurred well below its peak 1929 levels, so we can't really say the prior bull market ended in a long term sideways range. For instance, from 1934 to 1946 this range could be defined between 100 and 200 (DJIA values). But the Dow's peak value in 1929 was 381. In the period from 1966 to 1981, this range is most commonly defined to be between 535 and about 1051. The top end of the range thus matched the prior bull market top. In both instances the bottom of the range was about a 50% retracement from the top of the range. Only, in the thirties, the top of the range was half its best prior bull market values. In other words, to translate that into what it means today, if we argued for a seventies style economic model in our current outlook, as opposed to the earlier one where a gold standard was involved up until 1933, we might hastily conclude the Dow would trade between about 6000 and 12000 for the next 15 years or so. Click on link for rest of article... goldseek.com