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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (66128)	9/20/2002 8:34:03 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

<Can anyone refute Bernie schaeffer? > I'll check my magic eight ball, that is about the extent of what he did in the first place. Gets newsletter, promote it, work it, work a following, make predictions, promote predictions, repromote predictions, watch them come true if it gets repeated enough. answer: Try Again

To: michael97123 who wrote (66128)	9/21/2002 12:58:42 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Mike, response to Schaeffer includes embedded historic charts investorshub.com Please tell me what you think. Gottfried

To: michael97123 who wrote (66128)	9/21/2002 1:06:25 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Mike, I'll try to discuss Mr Schaeffers article. I have no strong opinion on him or his record. He is not a foaming at the mouth bear. Bernie's main argument is that there is still too much investor complacency for the bear to end. He says... Forget "high" VIX numbers like 56 and 57. At a climactic bear market bottom, the VIX will come in north of 100, as it did in October 1987. I'm glad you asked - the VIX peak in October 1987 was 172.79. The CBOE equity put/call ratio 21-day moving average will post readings in excess of 1.00. The highest such readings since 1990 have been in the 0.75+ area. There will have been many consecutive months of equity mutual fund redemptions, climaxing in an off-the-charts single-month figure. In other words, if the bear-market bottom is, in fact, climactic, we will not have a mere "extreme" of bearish sentiment - we will have an EXTREME!!! of bearish sentiment. And where will the Dow be when this occurs? In my opinion, at 6000 or south thereof. - Bernie Schaeffer Bernie mentions Oct '87 and here is a monthly chart stockcharts.com Looks like it happened during a bull market that started in '82. This chart shows the earlier years as well stockcharts.com VIX peaked at 173 according to Bernie. So the whole drop took 2-3 months. Then the bull resumed. I submit that our present situation is different and won't belabor the details. You all know them all too well. I think it is not reasonable to expect the same level of investor panic after more than 2 years of steady downward movement as you'd get when a bull market is interrupted by one huge but brief drop, as in '87. If that is hard to visualize imagine the panic of the participants on 9/11 and compare it to the reaction of a population that has been subjected to relatively minor acts of terror for years. There is a difference. So, in brief, I do not think a blowout panic is necessary for the bear to end. It can die with a whimper. Gottfried