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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win Smith who wrote (45756)	9/20/2002 9:13:54 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I sometimes forget that Michael Kinsley can turn out good op ed pieces. I find him very uneven, sometimes trying to be too cute; others too heavy. But here he seems to have found the right voice.

To: Win Smith who wrote (45756)	9/21/2002 8:57:27 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 281500

Energy danger as reliance on Middle East grows-IEA By Richard Mably OSAKA, Japan, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Major oil importing nations cannot avoid becoming ever more reliant on the volatile Middle East for fuel supplies, increasing their vulnerability to an oil crisis, energy watchdog the International Energy Agency said on Saturday. Growing dependence on a region now the focus of war fears, as the United States considers an attack on Iraq, makes energy security a major concern again for the first time since the 1990 Gulf crisis. "Security of supply has moved to the top of the energy policy agenda," said the IEA, the Paris-based agency that advises on energy for 26 industrialised nations. The report, a World Energy Outlook to 2030, was released here on Saturday at the International Energy Forum of some 60 oil producing and consuming nations. "Growing trade, almost entirely in fossil fuels, will have major geopolitical implications," the report said. "This ... will intensify concerns about the world's vulnerability to energy supply disruptions as production is increasingly concentrated in a small number of producing countries." The agency, set up in 1974 after the Arab oil embargo to protect the West's energy interests, said importing nations could still do more to protect against the threat of another oil shock. "Maintaining the security of international sea-lanes and pipelines will become more important as oil supply chains lengthen," the report said. "(Governments) will also step up measures to deal with short-term supply emergencies or price shocks, bolstering the IEA's standard requirement now for its member countries to hold 90 days worth of oil stocks. The report projects global energy demand growing by 1.7 percent a year to 2030 from 9.2 billion tonnes of oil equivalent a year to 15.3 billion toe, a two-thirds increase on current demand. Fossil fuels -- oil, gas and coal -- are expected to account for 90 percent of the projected increase and their share in demand will rise two percent to 89 percent, it said. Oil will continue to provide more than a third of world energy supplies, the single largest fuel in the global energy mix. GLOBAL WARMING That's not good news for the campaign to reduce fossil fuel greenhouse gases that cause global warming. Carbon-dioxide emissions are forecast rising steadily by 1.8 percent a year, or a 70 percent cumulative increase to 38 billion tonnes by 2030. By that time, developing nations are thought likely to be outstripping the industrialised world as the planet's biggest producers of greenhouse gases. Fast growth in natural gas demand, 2.4 percent a year, is expected to take it above coal by 2010 as the world's second-largest energy source. Nuclear's role will fade. Its share of demand is projected falling two percent to just five percent by 2030. "It is assumed that few new reactors will be built and several will be retired," said the IEA. Developing Asian nations, China in particular, will account for the largest share of demand growth and the most striking increase in dependence on the Middle East. China's oil demand will more than double, from five million bpd now to 12 million bpd in 2030. "By 2030 Chinese net oil imports are projected to reach more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) -- more than eight percent of world demand. These trends will make China a strategic buyer on world markets," the report said. Gas consumers will also become much more dependent on imports -- especially in Europe. "Cross-border gas pipeline projects will multiply and trade in liquefied natural gas will surge," the report said. While industrialised nations' need for foreign oil and gas will steadily grow, stronger government policies and international co-ordination is needed to give the 'energy poor' more access to modern energy. More than a quarter of the world's population now has no access to electricity. "Although the number of people without power supplies will fall in coming decades a projected 1.4 billion people will still be without electricity in 2030," the report said. "And the number of people using wood, crop residues and animal waste as their main cooking and heating fuels will actually grow." Copyright 2002, Reuters News Service forbes.com