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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (3135)	9/21/2002 1:37:20 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

Hi G, I'm not sure that VIX and Put/Call 2will be the dominant signal they have been in the past. A wimpy bottom can be the diabolic trick.After all - think about it - that would be a tip for shorts to cover. Shorts have been right for so long they will undoubtedly be caught in an updraft - it is afterall how the max can be regained.gg I think a retest of Sept 01 or July 02 minus 5% is the worst to expect.I'm not sure a violation of a past low is required.A pop and weakness will be the best short trap that can occur. Many people are used to shorting the pop - that may well provide the max set up. I think we are in a bottoming action - that may well take time. If this recovery is to be slow (as I suspect) then sideways consolidation with a mild final shakeout will be the sign to look for. Bob BWDIK

To: Gottfried who wrote (3135)	9/21/2002 1:40:52 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

Hi G, I also think the 9/11 was more traumatic than can be recreated by the market. A violation,marginally will do the job - if it is that severe??? Bob

To: Gottfried who wrote (3135)	9/21/2002 3:33:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

The bear will end when the economy improves enough so that the prospects for future earnings are more "visible" and they make valuations reasonable.

To: Gottfried who wrote (3135)	9/21/2002 7:41:09 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

I think we've already had panic, many times over. Represented by numerous down 300, down 250, monthlong 20% declines with no meaningful up days, wild swings, dumping 1500 Dow points in two weeks, 9/11, war fears, July 4 fears, this holiday fears, that holiday fears, code red alerts, Shrub talks-Makret dives, Greenspan talks-Market dives, 3% moves followed by 3% moves the next day followed by 4% moves the next day followed by 5% moves.....all down. Ever increasing record short interest. SI traders 75% short, 25% long it seems. Disappearance of anything but chart traders. Companies the quality of EDS at 10 year plus lows. No panic there? No panic in the 60% one day loss? INTC under 15, AMAT under 12, KLIC in the 3's, CSCO under 12, MSFT hanging on still but going nowhere No Panic? Nas 100 Stocks: 16 under $5, 20 from $5 to $10, 13 from $10 to $15, 23 from $15 to $25. Total 72 under $25. Remaining 28 "pricey" stocks are mostly biotech and consumer retail oriented. 80%+ from highs? No panic yet? Does panic come in at 90%?