To: chojiro who wrote (6339 ) 9/21/2002 1:50:03 PM From: Lizzie Tudor Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6974 Hi Lawrence, it's my opinion there is a greater risk of further erosion of fundamentals with Siebel than improvement fundamentals. I also believe at this point, even if things do start to improve with them there will be plenty of time to cover short positions before any sizable gains. I still stand by my target of below $3 before the end of '03. Of course I could be wrong. I've had my share of missed calls but I do feel more confident this evening than I have in a while. Chojiro, It should be pointed out, that you seem to be a trader only and unaware (or not interested in) fundamentals... which is ok, I'm sure most of the longs here even think the TA is pointing to further declines though, that is no revelation. At your $3 target, sebl would be trading for below their cash position. It could happen in this bear market, sure, but notice even dog telecom companies whose business has literally dried up (I'm talking about ciena going from over 450mm/qtr in 2000 to 50mm/qtr today) have a hard time trading for under cash. Siebel is doing worse than 2000, sure but it is not the complete dearth of business and "no light at the end of the tunnel" that optical faces. Additionally, many cash-rich companies are burning cash. So the bears argument is, that the cash will be gone one day. But sebl is cash flow positive and making money, other than buybacks doesn't spend on much and will probably add to his cash hoard over the year. I remember after the last cc you confused revenue per employee at sebl with employee pay. (if everybody in SV made an equivalent salary to their revenue draw, we'd all be pretty happy). Its hard to make fundamental calls on companies with missteps like that. From a TA perspective, I agree with you, sebl is going down although it closed well above the lows on friday and seems to be up again ah. L