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To: Les H who wrote (2949)	9/21/2002 10:16:37 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29600

Electronics stocks still overvalued? It looks like a standoff in the analyst community. The bears say stock prices in the electronics industry may not have hit bottom yet, while the bulls say they have. At the very least, stock values in the electronics industry are a mixed bag. Some trade at high multiples against book value while others trade at one-times book. Not surprisingly, the bears tend to follow those segments with high multiples, while the bulls are watching companies with one-times book. While equity levels of electronics companies hit five-year lows over the summer, the bears are not convinced stock prices are below intrinsic value, and they say that growth will be slow well into the future. Industry bulls, in contrast, insist that current stock prices will look like a great buy when double-digit growth returns. "Historically, chip companies in the 1980s and 1990s came down to one-times book at the trough," said Erach Desai, an equity analyst at American Technology Research in Greenwich, Conn. He said many chipmakers still trade at two-, five-, or even 10-times book. Desai also had doubts about the ability of chipmakers to return quickly to the kind of growth that would warrant high-stock values. "We don't see what the end-demand is to drive new technology. We're in a deflationary pricing environment, which means component guys are getting squeezed, so we're skeptical about 15 [percent] to 18 percent growth." His forecast for 2003 runs from zero to 5 percent growth. Other analysts see more promise for electronics industry stock prices. "This is an oversold market, and on the whole you find more value in an oversold market," said Bill Frerichs, senior research analyst at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Great Falls, Mont. "This is the opposite of the overbought market of two years ago." But even analysts who view stocks as a good buy don't necessarily believe they will head back up soon. "On any fundamental analytical basis, they're pretty cheap," said Clark Walser, principal at Walser and Associates in Arlington Heights, Ill., when speaking of stock prices of distributors. "But just because they're cheap doesn't mean they're going to get dear. They could be cheap for a long time." Rob Damron, equity analyst following electronic distributors at SWS Securities Inc. in Milwaukee, is more bullish. "Most electronic distributors are trading near book value. Historically, the low point is book value," he said. e-insite.net menu of articles e-insite.net

To: Les H who wrote (2949)	9/23/2002 11:27:48 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29600

TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Monday Sep 23, 2002 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D DJIA/NYSE 1.48 1.50 0.70 0.53 0.84 0.65 OTC 2.10 2.05 0.69 0.54 0.76 0.60 S&P 500 1.17 1.19 0.57 0.50 0.69 0.58 S&P 100 1.40 1.40 0.59 0.48 0.68 0.56 NASDAQ 100 1.33 1.36 0.57 0.51 0.62 0.54 TRIN overbought <= 0.75 oversold >= 1.25 Adv/Dec ratio overbought >= 1.15 oversold <= 0.85 Up/Dn vol ratio overbought >= 1.15 oversold <= 0.85 TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Tuesday Jul 23, 2002 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D 55d A/D 55d U/D DJIA/NYSE 1.30 1.35 0.47 0.41 0.65 0.51 0.79 0.63 OTC 1.07 1.24 0.60 0.71 0.72 0.76 0.78 0.75 S&P 500 1.05 0.92 0.36 0.49 0.51 0.57 0.67 0.66 TRIN, A/D, and U/D for Friday Sep 21, 2001 5d TRIN 10d TRIN 10d A/D 10d U/D 21d A/D 21d U/D 55d A/D 55d U/D DJIA/NYSE 1.00 1.14 0.45 0.38 0.66 0.50 0.89 0.73 OTC 1.36 1.39 0.48 0.37 0.64 0.49 0.79 0.69 S&P 500 0.96 1.04 0.40 0.35 0.58 0.47 0.79 0.69