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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (3143)	9/21/2002 5:53:46 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

HI Lizzie, Nice to see your thought s over on this thread also. You bring up some very good relative perspectives regarding VIX and Put/Call ratios. Her's some more food for thought: Short interest ratio is currently @ 6.24.This ratio is comprised of both Public AND NYSE specisalist shorts.Recent charts posted bt J.T. suggest this current ratio is strongly composed of Public shorts as NYSE specoalist have been net accumulators of stock. With the current number @ 6.24 - the 5 year high has been 7.15 An additional sentiment indicator is Investment advisors % Bullish/bearish-Bulls @ 41.9 with a 5 year low of 33.7 and high of 61.8 - While Bears are currently @ 30.1 with a 5year high of 47.5 and a low of 22.4. So we're really not too far off here either. I think Chief's position that 9/11/01 was the low - not yet violated by the general market and July 24 recent low if retested still will be a show of improving lows. Those of us in the Semi Equipment sector do not need to see a VIX of 100 to signal capitulation.A series of botooms that generally occurred on October 00,April 01,Sept 01,July 02 and now Sept of 02 leads me to believe that weak ownership of stocks has pretty well been accomplished. If these multiple shakeouts haven't left stock in the hands of the the strong - then I don't know what will. Through this transition of stock ownership we have weathered - the unknown of how far down the decline goes,an attack from terrorists,an ongoing war in both Israel and Afganistan and a recession that was albeit short lived. Past bottoms had Russia's debt default,Asian contagion high interest rates and inflation. We know have historically low interest rates and low inflation. The digital revolution is progressing nicely as Old Tech companies embrace the efficiencies of the internet.On top of that the often complained lack of broadband is relentlessly obsoleting copper lines as wireless moves into the neat,available,and not expensive "must have next gizmo(Wifi at Starbucks,Scholtzky's and many libraries and office buildings). I'm not so sure that this time it won't be different.Single and double bottoms had to have high volatility to get the weak out and the strong in. But it might just be a wimpy bottom that results after these four bottoms that have each scary in their own right. When these violent Hi Vix bottoms occur they provide a perfect timing opportunity for shorts to cover as volume is always climatic. It is worthy of at least a diabolical mind to ponder that in an environment were most of the now record shorts are positions of the public,a wimpy reversal may well be what the NYSE want to fool the newfound guru's with at the bottom. If the public is short AND THE BOTTOM IS WIMPY- I suspect the NYSE members (who have been net accumulators of stock will be more than happy to feed them there loser Du Jour with ever increasing prices as the sidelines jump in and compete with the trapped shorts - who are now competing with the longs rather than covering at a VIX spike bottom. With all the gurus declaring it a necessity - I suspect the trap is set for squeezing a lot of bears.They'll figure out the there really isn't a gong that goes off at the bottom as they panic to the same door those on the sidelines will be chasing. Just a possibility and I really do expect it to be different this time - it already has been. JMHO Bob