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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (45967)	9/21/2002 8:57:02 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I increasingly believe that, since the Bush folk have not brought forward convincing evidence, that the reasons for an invasion of Iraq lie not in the threat posed by Iraq but in the desire for a sort of demonstration effect to the world. I think that not only explains the unwillingness to offer evidence, but also the rather surprising trumpeting of a new doctrine, the strike first doctrine. All of which is grounded in a new view of foreign policy which is to use the overwhelming force advantage of the US military as the threat by which the US gets its way in international affairs. Use the military, then the threat is sufficient. There are two immediate problems which come to mind. First, that is extremely likely to increase the anger factor at the US throughout the world, certainly, at a minimum, increasing the recruitment reservoirs for the Al Q's of the world. It also will reduce the latitude of friendly governments because their populations will turn much more sour. One might term this a kind of blowback. Second, because that sharp a turn in US foreign policy has not been discussed, criticisms within the US could turn very much against the Bush folk. That will, of course, take some time and genuine, widespread mobilization would, no doubt, not occur until there were some triggering disaster. As a fairly nonpolitical friend of mine just said over the phone, has the Bush administration gone crazy.