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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chaz who wrote (6346)	9/22/2002 2:24:51 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

Barrons was down on the internet stocks especially amazon in the bubble though... I remember it was one bearish article after the other in 1999 as the mkt went on to new highs. So you're right they aren't correct often, but at least they aren't "perma" anything. (thats the worst,imo) L

To: chaz who wrote (6346)	9/22/2002 5:05:22 PM
From: hueyone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

Are you one of those who actually pays attention while reading Barron's? Yeah, I pay attention because occasionally there is some pretty good analysis in Barrons. I specifically remember some extensive valuation analysis regarding the poor quality of Cisco's reported pro forma "earnings" during the peak of the bubble. At the time, these articles were simply dismissed and laughed at by most folks by labeling Barrons "Bearons". Cisco was excluding an entire list of negative earnings from pro forma earnings that arguably should have been included in the quarterly earnings reported to investors. Cisco's 30 to 50% YOY earnings growth numbers near the end of the bubble was largely smoke and mirrors. Failure to expense stock options was also mentioned in several analysis' of Cisco's earnings in Barrons during the bubble long before failure to expense stock options became a popular topic of discussion. So yes I read Barrons, hoping that I will find something useful from time to time. I am not dismissing the article mentioning Sebl, but merely characterizing the article for what it was---a reproduction of a Merrill Lynch stock screen that named possible hi tech survivors who are selling at historically low prices compared to cash and book value. In my humble opinion, Sebl's upside depends to some extent on whether the greater fools prevail again. If the majority wants to suspend disbelief regarding expensing stock options, then Sebl may have another temporary little run if business turns up. If people start paying attention to "Core Earnings", as I believe they should, then Sebl is going nowhere. Siebel's options overhang is horrific. In addition, I wonder how Siebel employees are doing who have substantially relied on stock options income for payment. Do you think any of them will begin demanding more cash in lieu of options? If so, there will be more pressure on reported earnings regardless of whether Siebel expenses stock options. Best, Huey