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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff who wrote (7668)	9/22/2002 11:18:14 AM
From: John Carson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Jeff, your retrace theory is pretty amazing and seems to be working well up to now, but can you explain why it works as well as it does?

To: Jeff who wrote (7668)	9/22/2002 11:18:51 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30712

Jeff: re: "The remaining bulls around are using thread sentiment as an indicator....they say too many bears around now and thats a good sign...." There are bull/bear trading threads that play this game too. They look at the Rydex numbers and say not to be heavily short. Rydex numbers have meant nothing all year, nothing at all. Useless noise. One institutional buy on the short side can skew those numbers. It is a sad joke. Re: "truth is....of course theres more bears around....thats because most of the bulls are being wiped out daily by blind bull leaders and their reckless calls into the teeth of the worst bear since the 30's...." Bingo and it is sad. You talk about bleed downs and you are right. Right now the process is to get everyone long thinking 1200 or so is the bottom. It has been a long process. Truth is, looking at the retrace and its present course, all we are doing is building a descending triangle since the the July lows with a STRONG downtrendline and the next trip up to a lower high will be the last before the 1200 base is broken for the dump to 1000. Okay, don't like the descending triangle? Then try a head and shoulders on the comp where the next trip will be to backtest the neckline and that will be at 1275 or so, a retrace point: stockcharts.com[r,a]dhcayiay[db][pb20!b50!b200!c20!d20,2!f][vc60][ilb14!la12,26,9!lg!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3!ll14][j6527234,y]&listNum=1 Whatever

To: Jeff who wrote (7668)	9/22/2002 11:32:22 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Some charts that may be of interest for confirmation of this downtrend: BPCOMPQ Daily: stockcharts.com[r,a]daclyyay[de][pc20][vc60][iLb14!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G BPSPX Daily: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200!c20!f][vc60][ill14!la12,26,9][J6581246,Y]&pref=G BPNDX Daily: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[df][pc20!b50!f][vc60][ill14!la12,26,9][J6530226,Y]&pref=G BPOEX Weekly: stockcharts.com[h,a]wallyyay[df][pc20!b50][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J6616519,Y]&pref=G Nasdaq Summation index: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[df][pc20!b50!a-1000!a-1250][vc60][J7142161,Y]&pref=G And the BPNDX:VXN: stockcharts.com[w,a]wallyyay[de][pf][vc60]&pref=G The last chart really puts things in perspective for those who are comparing this Sept. low to the July low or the low last September. We still have a ways to drop. These charts can keep any trader on the correct side of the trend. I know many of us here use these charts, and they only seem to confirm new lows are coming in October.