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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: D. Long who wrote (46043)9/22/2002 1:52:55 AM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Derek, good news. I sure would be disappointed in the Bush adminstration if they hadn't anticipated this maneuver on Saddam's part.

Meanwhile Ze'ev Schiff analyses Israeli intentions in Ramallah. He think Israel is taking another step towards getting rid of Arafat but is not going all the way yet:

Analysis / Operation Muqata 2

By Ze'ev Schiff




The defense establishment views Operation Muqata 2, which further tightens the siege on Yasser Arafat, as a further step toward removing him from leadership of the Palestinians since it has become clear he is impeding efforts for a cease-fire and reforms in the Palestinian Authority.

The assumption is that isolating Arafat and arresting the "hardcore" wanted Palestinians who are hiding in his headquarters will make it easier for the Palestinian leaders who are calling for a cease-fire with Israel. As of last night, none of these wanted Palestinians surrendered and among the 40 or so persons who came out of the rubble were none Israel is looking for. It appears that they, like Arafat, are waiting for international pressure to come into play like the last time the IDF besieged the Muqata.

There has not been any serious diplomatic pressure directed at Israel to release Arafat from the siege. The Americans asked Israel to "be careful" - in other words, not to respond to terrorism with military means that may result in a broadening of the armed confrontation.

Defense sources say time is on Israel's side and officials do not exclude the possibility of using force in the future to "nab" those on the wanted list. The Palestinians will surely negotiate for the release of these men, as they behaved during the siege of the Church of the Nativity. A senior IDF officer said some of them could be sent to Baghdad, from where they received funding and guidance. Others will be tried in Israel for the terror attacks they were involved in.

The force used by the IDF was mostly through the bulldozers of the Engineering Corps against the structures in the Muqata. At least 10 buildings have been razed, in addition to all the prefabricated ones. The bridge linking Arafat's residence and offices was also destroyed, and the offices were taken over by the IDF. There have been no requests from the Muqata for food or water. The decision at this time is not to allow any visitors to see Arafat.

In the past, Israel succumbed to the pressure and lifted the siege on the Muqata. The siege ended after President George Bush asked that it be lifted, following requests made to him by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah.

The decision to resume the siege on Arafat came in place of a broad military operation against various targets in the Gaza Strip. As the possibility of war with Iraq is imminent, it is not surprising this was the option chosen. Against Gaza, military force was used against specific targets. This does not mean these operations will cease because the siege has been reimposed on the Muqata.

Politically, Israel justified its operation because of Arafat hampering any effort to further the cease fire or to initiate reforms that might undermine his status as the leading Palestinian. Defense sources say Arafat chastised those in the PA leadership who sought to gain an understanding with the Hamas in the Gaza Strip for an end to the firing of mortars against Israeli targets.

They added that he also tried to undermine the quiet established in Bethlehem and all efforts by Interior Minister Abd al-Razek Yihiye for a general cease-fire. These obstructions are meant, say the security sources, to prevent any internal discussion in the PA regarding the continuation of a violent confrontation with Israel.

haaretzdaily.com