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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLP who wrote (46154)	9/22/2002 1:36:28 PM
From: epsteinbd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

This worse case scenario doesn't end here, unfortunately. Any bio epidemy (the only real danger) spreading among humans occuring in the US, even on a small scale, not millions, would : 1/ Slow the US economy by much %. 2/ Halt exports from many countries, domino triggering aggravated poverty, no food, etc. 3/ Local wars here and there. But at the same time, and even WORSE : A dollar and credit meltdown. And with that, billions of us are toasted. Now, who are the most able to survive under such conditions ? The Arab populations in their own countries. Thus, their "way of life" will expand. For them, a planet catastrophe will be the Great Equalizer, their Renaissance. Not the stone age, the Middle-age. In my view, this is one of the Mullahiah objectives, and AQ, Saddam and some still invisible are the spark, Allah's Sword and Word. What are the probability of this scenario to unfold ? 10% per year, not cumulative, but hardly diminishing with time. Never been so risky since the Cuban missile crisis (13 days!). Not even under Hitler, or Stalin nukes. As today's bad actors aren't going to turn their weapons off the US Early Warning Lines, and there is no good way to stop them for sure, no matter the effort, dedication, means and talents. So now its all in W hands. And it matters not if we like him or not, if he is a great speaker, if elections etc ; it only matters, and to some extend only, if he is really good at it. Not attacking Saddam these months would save time, but not change much of the equation.