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To: Eric L who wrote (2476)9/23/2002 9:04:18 AM
From: LarsA  Respond to of 9255
 
Thanks Eric, valuable information. Well, GSM is certainly not toast yet and we have TDMA to GSM conversion in the US going on...

Lars



To: Eric L who wrote (2476)11/25/2002 3:57:47 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9255
 
Wireless Technology Scorecard (September 2002 End)

CDG has just posted Official CDMA sub counts through Q3 end.

cdg.org

CDMA YOY growth rate is 31%.

Subscribers as of September 2002 End

Subscribers % of All % of Digital
Technology (Millions) Subscribers Subscribers

GSM 747.5 69.2% 71.2%
CDMA 134.9 12.5% 12.9%
TDMA 107.8 10.3% 10.4%
PDC 59.2 5.5% 5.6%
W-CDMA 0.13 <.1% .1%
------------------------------------------------
Total Digital 1049.6 97.1% 100.0%
Total Analogue 30.9 2.9% N/A
Total Wireless 1080.5 100.0% N/A

Source: EMC Cellular & CDG

27 Month Relative Market Share of CDMA & GSM

QCDMA Market Share GSM Market Share

% of all % of digital % of all % of digital

Q3 2002 End 12.5% 12.9% 69.2% 71.2%
Q2 2002 End 12.3% 12.7% 68.6% 71.0%
Q4 2001 End 11.7% 12.3% 67.0% 71.0%
Q2 2001 End 11.5% 12.3% 65.7% 70.6%
Q4 2000 End 11.5% 12.7% 64.4% 71.4%
Q2 2000 End 11.9% 13.9% 56.6% 66.1%


• In 27 months CDMA wireless market share has increased by 5% (6/10ths of a percentage point) while GSM wireless market share has increased by 22.3% (12.6 percentage points).

• In 27 months GSM has increased digital wireless market share by 7.8% (5.1 percentage points) while CDMA has declined 7.2% (-1 percentage point) although it is trending upwards. Since the end of 2000, however, CDMA has gained 1 percentage point back while GSM has marginally lost 1/5th of a percentage point.

9 Month (Anualized) Subscriber Growth Rates

9 Mo.Net
Dec 01 Sept 02 Adds CAGR

Total CDMA Subscribers 112.2 134.9 22.7m 27.85%
Total GSM Subscribers 646.5 747.5 101.0m 21.35%
Total TDMA Subscribers 94.7 107.8 13.1m 18.86%

15 Month (Anualized) Subscriber Growth Rates

15 Mo Net
Jun 01 Sept 02 Adds CAGR

Total CDMA Subscribers 96.3 134.9 38.6m 30.95%
Total GSM Subscribers 550.1 747.5 197.4m 27.80%
Total TDMA Subscribers 80.9 107.8 26.9m 25.82%

Key Ratios

GSM subs to CDMA subs Today 5.5:1
GSM subs to CDMA subs 9 months ago 5.8.1
GSM subs to CDMA subs 15 months ago 5.7:1


###

- Eric -