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Strategies & Market Trends : IPPs and Merchant Energy Co.s -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (130)	9/22/2002 7:56:55 PM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3358

>>>Fail,dyn,ep Survive aye,duk.<< I don't see any of these failing. I can see the mention of DYN and my other choice for a failing possibility would be WMB. But, curious as to why you think EP will have problems that would force it into BK anymore than some of the others? Thanks, Joe

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (130)	9/23/2002 5:44:50 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3358

I think the thread portfolio is sharply divided into companies with substantial regulated utility operations (DUK, AYE, REI, ILA) and companies without (EP WMB, CPN, DYN, MIR, RRI). The companies in the first group will almost certainly survive under most conditions. My rank of them in terms of survivability is DUK, AYE, REI, ILA. But even ILA, has excellent survivability potential, IMO. DUK will not fail unless we get into Great Depression II and most companies in the US fail. Companies in the second group are in serious peril, but also have the greatest reward potential, if we can correctly identify survivors. My subjective rank of survivability potential in the second group is EP, MIR, WMB, CPN, RRI, DYN. I must confess however that my DD is concentrated on MIR and ILA, and my opinion of the others is roughly based on where their bonds are trading relative to each other. Also, I believe that if the accounting cloud is lifted from MIR within the next three weeks, its survivability potential will increase substantially. My position is in sharp disagreement with yours in one respect: I don't think EP will fail, and the bond market seems to agree on this. Kyros