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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (7084)	9/22/2002 9:31:58 PM
From: pbull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

What still works in this market are stocks of companies that have good franchises, generate positive cash flow and earnings and are not mega-caps. Take a look at regional banks, insurance companies, retailers, small S&Ls that grow the bottom line at about 15 percent a year. Many of them are doing just fine, thank you. Value overtook growth as an investment strategy in the year 2000, and that trend has held ever since. Yes, there are many problems in the economy right now, we all know that. As investors, from here, we should focus on what works instead of what doesn't work. I'm bearish on indexes, but bullish on companies that stick with what they know instead of spending zillions of dollars trying to develop the elusive "next big thang." The warning signs are easy to spot. Remember when MCD tried to become a pizza maker? PB

To: stockman_scott who wrote (7084)	9/23/2002 10:12:14 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

counter to Blinders quote "But for the essentials — for jobs, wages and productivity — it was very real indeed." most of the jobs were sent to Mexico and to Asia, continuing the trend seen in the 1980's, accelerated by NAFTA... the Strong Dollar sent these jobs overseas... now the reversal of that policy will bring inflation to our shores, and cut a few million jobs wages grew, but not much at all after adjusting for inflation... and now that the bust comes, wages will be closer to zero for the newly unemployed... if wages were real in the 1990's, their absence will be even more real in this decade productivity was and continues to be a sham, as multipliers used by USGovt reporting arms continue to distort the real numbers according to speed of computer processors, speed of internet transactions, speed of data storage accesses, and size of prescription drug units... none of which materially add to productivity but somehow deserve a 15x multiplier by our govt deceivers... Roach calls these "quality adjustments", considers them deceptive, and deletes them in his analysis Blinder is a hack, cut of Greenspam's cloth, a cheerleader public relations whore operating out of a liberal university environment that sees nothing wrong with our currency, credit, or banking system / jim

To: stockman_scott who wrote (7084)	9/23/2002 10:56:15 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

GEORGE SOROS ON U.S. DISEQUILIBRIUM - IFP Sept. 16, 2002, CNBC After Hours with Maria BigLips George Soros, Chairman of Soros Fund Management, which has $11.7B under management, was interviewed last week on CNBC After Hours. His prognosis for the U.S. stock market and U.S. dollar were discussed, among other things. Here is a rough outline of the high points. Maria: What do you make of the bear market in U.S. stocks? Soros: What we are seeing are two things; 1) the boom/bust effect and 2) the Bush effect - that is, his handling of the U.S. economy and the IRAQ situation. The U.S. markets can take care themselves, but the international markets require more management. The global markets are presently malfunctioning, they are broken down, not as the result of a particular crisis, but a series of crises. Maria: What about the Brazil situation? Soros: Brazil is an example of capitalist greed. With 20% interest rates (in U.S. dollar terms) it is impossible to maintain growth to sustain the economy. Regarding the possibility of a moritorium on the $30B in loans this year, it appears that in 2003 a moritorium is unavoidable. Maria: On Sept. 16, 1992 you bet against the Bank of England and the British pound and made $1B overnight... Soros: Yes, when I saw the Bank of England take such drastic measures by raising interest rates 2 percentage points, it was the signal of desperate action to keep the currency strong, when it needed to drop lower. Maria: In June, 2002 you called for the U.S. dollar to drop 30% over the next two years, why? Soros: The U.S. spends 5% more than they earn. This is not sustainable over the long term, although it has made the U.S. the global motor of growth. It looks to me that the dollar has already popped, but it will take some time for the unfolding of the disequilibrium. Maria: Where will the money go? the Euro, the Yen? Soros: I don't think there is any good alternative, although we have seen more money going into the U.S. real estate bubble, and into precious metals. What I see is more and more people bringing their money home. SOURCE: Video footage of CNBC "After Hours" [Ed. Note: Soros was right about the crash of the British pound, which gives him credibility for his call of a 30% drop of the U.S. dollar. What effect do you think this type of drop will have on the price of gold? Read what Thom Calandra (CBSMarketWatch) said in his article: WALLOPED DOLLAR TO ACCELERATE GOLD] buycoin.com