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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (5573)	9/23/2002 8:03:15 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95480

Hi G, Thanks for the depressing chart.gg Note the Sox has been oversold harder and longer tham any short term low in the past. Realizing that since the 182.59 low of Oct 98 - many of the Sox stocks have made huge profits.These retained earnings are sitting in some large cash hordes within the companies coffers. This all adds to the book value analysis being the better trough value analysis.When you've made and retained money and it is in the bank or better yet - in the bank and depreciated ,it provides a floor in the stock price. Below that value Mergers and Acquisitions start working.I remember in 98 when KLAC merged - the two largets competitors determined it was smarter to merge than it was to cut margins - brilliant bottomline move and they've grown in wealth and dominance ever since.Amat of course has used their cash horde to buy technology and further their lead in trough times as well. I guess NVLS and PRIA is an example of this in a more recent time frame. stockcharts.com[s,a]waclyiay[pb30!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Li14,3]&pref=G Fast Stochastics are really @ flatline lows and ADX is at a reversal point of -DI extreme.We're at a great buy zone - question is will it be traumatic or wimpy.I'm trying both.A small cash purchase and watching for the ridiculous low ball GTC opportunity if somebody says "Just get me out!!! - I cant stand it any more!!" I have learned to expect this at a reversal - but this time might throw shorts a heck of a curve. As your B to B numbers show business is slowly improving and losses are being converted to breakeven and /or slight profits.No one has excessive demand so maintenance production rates with fits and starts.This should sooner or later give us a sideways consolidation after this final shakeout finishes. Assets and cash always have value - especially when the sharks in your tank have huge cash reserves. JMHO Bob G, Regarding your quetios on short sales being public vs NYSE - a response from someone much more informed than myself:http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=18021997