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To: BWAC who wrote (2171)9/23/2002 12:16:26 AM
From: Robert O  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13403
 
I guess I continue to point to the huge red flags my link brought up:

1) Phrases such as 'investigations into trading practices' and 'the collapse of wholesale power prices'

2) This is an incredible adjustment down why suspect it will not get worse?? 'Charlotte, North Carolina-based Duke said it expected to earn between $1.95 and $2.05 per share in 2002, excluding charges. In July, the company estimated a range of $2.45 to $2.55. Analysts' estimates provided by Thomson First Call ranged from $2.35 to $2.60, with a mean of $2.46.

Looking ahead, the company warned that if the North American merchant energy market does not improve, earnings may decline in 2003. First Call estimates for 2003 range from $2.20 to $2.78, with the consensus of $2.46.'

3)
But the prolonged economic downturn, the collapse of wholesale power prices, and decreased market liquidity have cut growth for the whole sector.

What's the 'right'market cap. for a 'safe' utility these days? Well what's the 'right' p/e?Many invest in utilities for the dividend not the upside. When you have a whole bunch of negatives that might threaten that companies financial strength esp. to payout or increase the dividend... well seems like a potential big drop to downside though by no means certain with a somewhat capped upside. A new war might provide a different rub...but that's another turn of the screw.

RO