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To: Lucretius who wrote (193225)	9/23/2002 8:58:32 AM
From: JohnG	Respond to of 436258

IRAQ war cost. Much has been made of the esta $200MM cost of the upcomming war with IRAQ. The last Gulf War cost $65MM and was largely paid for by Saudia Arabia, other oil countries, Europeans, etc. After some consideration I have gome to the belief that IRAQ will be forced to pay the $200MM cost by selling oil or giving oil. This oil production will compete with current oil being produced elsewhere and thus will likely cause a major drop in oil prices over the repayment period. if true, his would stimulate the shaky economies around the world but injure various oil producers like Russia, Lybia, Saudia Arabia. Needless to say, if oil producers see this outcome, they will oppose the war. If they see the war as enevitable, they may work for a peaceful change of govt in Iraq as an alternative.