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To: Philip W. Dunton, Jr who wrote (3575)	9/23/2002 11:58:06 AM
From: Philip W. Dunton, Jr	Respond to of 3661

Semiconductor index touches new four-year low -- Technical -- SOX index -- currently trading at 239 -- is touching its worst levels since October of 1998. Sector leader Intel (INTC -4.6%) leading the way lower today as it has broken to a new 52-week low.

To: Philip W. Dunton, Jr who wrote (3575)	9/23/2002 8:14:43 PM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3661

Correct, they are worse now. We didn't have a bubble to work off back then. Further the high on the Dow back then was 1000 so you have much further to fall now. The 1972-74 bear was mostly caused by a political event (watergate) and it was a crisis of confidence. Clearly we do not see eye to eye. Inflation, unemployment, consecutive quarters with negative growth, and do not remotely mirror our current economic circumstances by any stretch, taking the bubble into consideration. Moreover, you neglected to note the affect on the Vietnam War and the oil embargo....but overlooked various other business cycle events that precipitated the business cycle of 72-74. Most economic historians I am familiar with do not attribute the decline from 72-74 to a crisis of confidence....more often than not, the attribute it to a by product of the vicious cycle of other elements, including inflation, unemployment and consecutive quarters with negative growth. Might you have read the piece from the NYTimes? Have you studied previous other bubbles in our economic history? My general thoughts are if one look outside the window, one can see the sky falling if he/she chooses too....facts are objective, but interpretation is subjective.