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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (46409)9/23/2002 2:48:26 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
OIL and WAR

endthewar.org



To: JohnM who wrote (46409)9/23/2002 7:08:04 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 281500
 
Most likely not the above.

What? We don't agree? Shocking!

I think Arafat's HQ is the only sanctuary left in Palestine, and some of the Terrorists are holed up there. That, combined with the latest bombings, cause him to move on it.

I looks like he caved to US pressure not to kick Arafat out of there, and jail the rest of the gang. TWT.



To: JohnM who wrote (46409)9/23/2002 7:18:15 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
Out of History Into History

By William Rivers Pitt
t r u t h o u t | Perspective
Monday, 23 September, 2002
truthout.org

Some will tell you the Cold War ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Others will say it ended when the Soviet Union finally collapsed, when their breed of communism was cast aside in favor of free-enterprise democracy. In truth, the Cold War finally ended this past week, when the Bush administration chose to reframe the strategic posture of the American military away from the concept of deterrence.

Replacing that time-tested and diplomatically pliable stance are two steel fists. One declares the United States supreme over all nations, now and forever, and warns the world that we will never allow another nation to come close to matching our power. The other bluntly proclaims that we will attack any nation, at any time, in a pre-emptive fashion, if we so choose.

The language of the document codifying this new reality, which is entitled "The National Security Strategy of the United States of America," is bland and warm and fuzzy and relatively obscure. No surprise there, as the majority of the text is culled and polished snippets of speeches delivered by George W. Bush since September 11, 2001. It calls for peace between nations, brotherhood, economic freedom, the advancement of human rights, and the unquestionable fact that we are the biggest dog on the lot, forever and ever, amen.

Hoo-rah. This will doubtlessly go over well with a majority of Americans, and why not? We were viciously attacked, and must warn the world that we will swing the big stick if anyone should ever think of attacking us again. Besides, we are already the greatest nation in the history of the planet, no? There should be no shame in coming right out and saying it. Pax Americana shall enshroud the globe like eagle's wings. As the preamble to this remarkable document states, "The United States will use this moment of opportunity to extend the benefits of freedom across the globe. We will actively work to bring the hope of democracy, development, free markets, and free trade to every corner of the world."

The devil, as ever, is in the details. "The U.S. national security strategy," reads the document, "will be based on a distinctly American internationalism that reflects the union of our values and our national interests. The aim of this strategy is to help make the world not just safer but better."

Consider the unrestrained arrogance of this statement. American military might and economic influence shall endeavor to make the world better...for America. There is little room within these words for the wishes and values of sovereign nations such as China and Russia, or national collectives like the European Union. "Better" is in the eye of the beholder, and if any nation should come to decide that the American version of "better" is unacceptable, the new National Security Strategy leaves little doubt what our response will be:

"The United States has long maintained the option of preemptive actions to counter a sufficient threat to our national security," reads the document. "The greater the threat, the greater is the risk of inaction - and the more compelling the case for taking anticipatory action to defend ourselves, even if uncertainty remains as to the time and place of the enemy's attack. To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act preemptively."

Essentially, the new doctrine for American national security offered by the Bush administration erases all borders, along with several centuries worth of respect for territorial, cultural and governmental sovereignty. Despite several sunshine-filled sentences praising NATO and the United Nations, this strategy would seem to offer little say for anyone but the American government and the American military. My way or the highway. With us or against us. Pick your phrase.

By threatening to unilaterally attack anyone we choose, the Bush administration has threatened the entire international community. In stating that American values and an American concept of what constitutes a "better" world shall define the playing field, we cast aside respect for any nation that would dare exist within its own cultural or economic sphere. By demanding that no nation, anywhere, attempt to strengthen themselves, and by framing that demand with threats of war, we invite deadly challenges from governments that do not take kindly to having their futures dictated to them. Shot through it all is the premise that diplomacy is a waste of time, that treaties are for suckers, and that any nation that dares to try and play by American rules will have its back decisively broken.

The Cold War ended with the publication of this document, and a new one was born in its place. The deterrence strategy we employed against the Soviet Union has been replaced with naked, threatening aggression against the entirety of the global community. Such a move will never bring peace, but will cause us to arm ourselves to an ever-greater degree in the face of international contempt. America, already trapped in a bunker mentality after 9/11, with be further ostracized from the international community. The walls will grow higher.

As always with this administration, there is more than one game afoot.

George W. Bush has presented to Congress a proposed resolution regarding his intentions towards the nation of Iraq. Like his recent address to the United Nations, this would seem to be a defeat - the Bush administration spent the summer declaring that they would make war against Iraq without Congressional approval, and without any sort of official UN resolution on the matter. Congressional pressure, as well as some dispiriting poll numbers which indicated that the American people were not with him on this game plan, forced Bush to back down. He went to the UN, and has now gone to Congress for approval.

If the Bush administration has its way, however, that seeming defeat will be a temporary thing. The new strategic plan outlined above, if acted upon, unilaterally does away with any influence the UN may hold. The resolution sent to Congress, if accepted as it stands, will effectively remove Congress as a deliberative body from any war decisions made by America, and will give Bush carte blanche to make war on any nation he wishes. Despite the gloss, the resolution is about much more than Iraq.

The resolution demands that Bush be given the ability to "use all means that he determines to be appropriate, including force...to defend the national security interests of the United States against the threat posed by Iraq, and restore international peace and security in the region."

Someone once said that laws are only as good as the people who would enforce them. If Congress passes this resolution with that purposefully opaque reference to "the region" intact, they will have given George W. Bush a veneer of legal protection for any aggressive action he might take. "Region" does not mean Iraq. "Region" means Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and Pakistan for starters. We know that his foreign policy is currently being run by neo-conservative hawks like Richard Perle, Paul Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, men who would love nothing more than to re-write the map of that "region" by instigating total war, and damn the consequences.

As it always seems to do, the argument comes down to trust in motives. Peace and international cooperation is not on the agenda, as is evident by his reaction to Saddam Hussein's offer to allow weapons inspectors back into Iraq. Bush scored a major victory there - his bombast and threats browbeat a tyrant into compliance - but before the ink dried on the offer his administration dismissed it as a joke and continued to prepare for unilateral aggression. That alone exposes his motives, and they are not to be trusted in any sense.

The setbacks Bush absorbed by having to pander to Congress and the UN are temporary. If he gets his way on these two matters, he will have the dangerously legal ability to act in ways utterly antithetical to the best interests of this country. Another set of confrontations, with Congress and with the UN, is in the offing because of these plans.

Already, Democrats in the House and Senate are preparing to resist the language of the resolution as stated. Senator Patrick Leahy has released a statement that states, "The draft language is so open-ended that it could authorize anything from backing up weapons inspectors to a unilateral attack, and beyond." Leahy's statement goes on to note, "The negotiations at the United Nations are still ongoing, and we do not know what type of military action the Administration wants to take, or what costs and risks to our national interests are involved. At this point there do not seem to be answers to even basic questions about the conditions that would trigger warfare." The reference to the United Nations is telling.

Nineteen Democratic House members have couched their opposition to the Bush administration's plans in terms less diplomatic than Leahy's. Jim McDermott, Democrat from Washington, has said, "I am very skeptical of this whole operation and have the feeling that it has much more to do with oil than anything else." Marcy Kaptur, Democrat from Ohio, has said, "Naked aggression is not the American way. America, wake up." Many other Democrats have voiced similar concern. The likelihood that the Bush administration will be able to barnstorm this resolution through Congress is questionable.

Congress seems likely to link any approval for war on Iraq with a UN resolution approving of same. This will open the door for entities like the European Union to make themselves powerfully heard on the world stage. The EU's future will be badly disrupted by the new strategic plan offered by the Bush administration, and their influence would be gutted if Bush chooses to ignore the UN and push towards war unilaterally.

The stage is set. Congress stands on one end, the fate of its viability resting on its willingness to give Bush the ability to bypass them and the world in pursuit of battle. The European Union and the rest of the international community stands on the other, facing an America that would force its culture and imperial designs down their collective throats. The Bush administration sits foursquare in the middle of the mess it has made. If they win this confrontation, this nation will never be the same. If they lose, their credibility and standing will have been seriously diminished.

One way or another, though, the endgame will be played out. In the words of Robert Penn Warren, we shall go "out of history into history and the awful responsibility of Time."

-------

William Rivers Pitt is a teacher from Boston, MA. He is the author of two books - "War On Iraq" (with Scott Ritter) available now from Context Books, and "The Greatest Sedition is Silence," available in April 2003 from Pluto Press.



To: JohnM who wrote (46409)9/23/2002 8:28:46 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 281500
 
Would ousting Iraq's Hussein destabilize The Mideast?

Yes: Possible upheavals might create problems hurting U.S. interests

By Anthony T. Sullivan
Editorial
The Detroit News
Sunday, September 22, 2002
detnews.com

Ousting Saddam Hussein might have more far-reaching consequences than most people imagine. The possible splintering of Iraq as a result of U.S. military action might radically destabilize the Middle East. Such an outcome would do nothing to promote American national interests.

Iraq is divided into three parts: the Shiite south, the Sunni center and the Kurdish north. These three constituent parts were soldered together after World War I. Historically, they possessed little in common. During most of the last 75 years, they have been held together only through the heavy hand of the Sunni center.

Hussein is very much in that Sunni dictatorial tradition. Of course, what he has done to Kuwait, and to his own people, is abominable. Nevertheless, one may argue that without the "rigor" imposed from Baghdad, Iraq might dissolve, briefly, into three independent statelets. But such statelets would probably not be independent for long. Much larger and more powerful neighbors would likely gobble each of them up soon enough.

A fragmented Iraq would introduce radical instability into the Middle East political system. Upheavals would probably metastasize, with unpredictable results. None would foster American national interests.

What happens if the United States manages to save Iraq, but in the process loses Saudi Arabia and Jordan? Osama bin Laden, if alive, may well be ecstatic over the myriad possibilities that a U.S. war with Baghdad might offer al-Qaida. What President George W. Bush proposes, if implemented, may well provide terrorists with legions of recruits. Indeed, terrorist threats to the United States might become even greater during and after a war than they are now.

Imagine a war with Iraq that initially "succeeds" in toppling Hussein and his loathsome Ba'athist regime, but results in Iraq dissolving into its three parts.

Imagine that in the postwar confusion, southern Shiite Iraq (constituting 60 percent of the population) detaches itself from Baghdad. Soon enough, Shiite Iran might step into the breach and occupy or effectively control the Shiite region.

By doing so, Iran would place itself on the northern frontier of Saudi Arabia. Seeing this, the Shiites in Saudi Arabia, located overwhelmingly in the eastern part of the country and sitting atop major oil fields, might revolt. The Saudis might well be unable to repress the rebellion, and the Americans might be too overstretched militarily to provide timely assistance. Iranian influence then might plunge southward into the world's most important oil fields.

Would this be in the U.S. national interest?

Then there is the Sunni center of Iraq. Assume the Sunnis, who comprise only about 20 percent of the Iraqi population, are left bereft in a disintegrated country. But imagine that the Sunni plurality in Syria, despite its Alawite regime, couldn't resist the opportunity to take control of formerly Sunni Iraq. Assume further that the result is the creation of a greater Syria with power projected east into Baghdad and west into Beirut.

Would this also be in the American national interest?

Finally, assume that in a postwar Iraq the mainly Sunni Kurds in formerly Iraqi Kurdistan, who sit atop a large amount of oil, decide to realize their millennial dream of an independent state. This might well lead the Kurds in both Turkey and Iran to revolt or secede, and to attempt to unite with their kinsmen to the south and west. Turkey and Iran then might send armies into Kurdistan to repress internal secessions and secure control of at least some Kurdish oil. Then imagine that war breaks out between NATO member Turkey and Iran, whose relations have long been poisonous.

If even one of these dark scenarios were to occur, the United States would be faced with a host of major new problems, and the war against terrorism would suffer a major setback. Oftentimes, the devil one knows is better than the devils one does not.
__________________________________________________________________________

Dr. Anthony T. Sullivan is a distinguished senior scholar who holds an honorary position as an Associate at the Center for Middle Eastern and North African Studies at the University of Michigan.

Before his retirement in 2000, Dr. Sullivan was affiliated for 30 years with Earhart Foundation (Ann Arbor, Michigan), most recently as Director of Program and Corporate Secretary. From 1962-1967 Dr. Sullivan taught at International College (Beirut, Lebanon).

Dr. Sullivan received his BA from Yale (1960), his MA from Columbia (1961), and his Ph.D from the University of Michigan (1976) in European history and Middle Eastern Studies.

He has written two books and some 80 articles and reviews, and has lectured widely at universities in the United States and abroad.

Over the past three decades he has traveled frequently to the Middle East in connection with his professional responsibilities and research interests.



To: JohnM who wrote (46409)9/23/2002 11:14:17 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
My take, at the moment, it's that Sharon is trying to (a) derail the meager talks between Israeli and Palestinian offices which were underway; (b) trying to derail the internal Palestinian moves to undermine Arafat by reinvoking the notion that political enemies of Arafat must be friends of Israelis; (c) something like Serge Schenemann wrote in the Times, that it was simply Sharon's deep seated hatred for Arafat that lead him to do dumb things now and again or (d) all of the above.

This is journalist silliness. What Sharon is doing is not hard to figure. There will be no movement forward while Arafat and his chief gunmen are still in place, so Sharon is working to get rid of them. It's a process. Sharon gets some room to maneuver, then he pushes until the US pushes back. Then Sharon stops, and maneuvers for room again. It's been going on for over a year and a half. All this foolishness about deals or talks or cease-fires which would have miraculously come into being if only Sharon had not done what he did, are piffle. Likewise psychobabble theories about Sharon's hatred for Arafat. Sure, Sharon hates Arafat, so do 80% of Israelis! But if his hatred were uncontrollable, Arafat would have been dead for some time now. Sharon has been proceeding in a very calculated manner.

Even now, on the Lehrer report, I hear Schmemann of the NY Times babbling how Sharon has set back efforts at Palestinian reform. What a crock. The big setback to Palestinian reform is the continued existence of Yasser Arafat. If he goes, and his vicious henchmen like Tirawi go with him, then hey presto!, you will see reform come into being. This is just like all those fools who told us that Israel's actions last spring would only serve to strengthen Arafat. Well, time for a reality check. Is Arafat stronger now than he was then? Nope.