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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (15497)	9/23/2002 5:25:21 PM
From: TimbaBear	Respond to of 78683

Allen Furman I am extremely nervous about what might occur in the market between now and the end of October. Given that nervousness, if I were going to buy a put, I figure that I might as well do it now. My total dollar exposure is minimal (<$500). Do I expect their huge derivative exposure to blow up in their face? Perhaps not all of it. But I've read some (unverified) reports that some of covenants used to back that exposure were dependent, in part, on JPM price not going below 20. I have also read that JPM has a large exposure to gold, and if the metal has any sudden increase they could suffer major problems. Given the watch level increase that has been put on by one of the credit rating agencies (Fitch?), and given my own analysis of their cash flow and having these other tidbits of potential floating around out there, I can see the potential for much more downside to their stock price. How long did it take Enron's price to go down the tubes once the credit started getting downgraded? I'm not betting on JPM to go to zero by Nov. expiration, just betting that I can get out of the position by the end of October with a nice profit. Timba