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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (88440)	9/23/2002 7:14:13 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

So, how many think AMD will warn? Last quarter AMD predicted sales would grow "modestly" from $600M. Flash sales has increased from 160M in Q1 to 175M in Q3. Processor sales had gone down from 684M to 380M, units from 8M to 6M. That means ASPs went from $85 to $63. Final sales of computers were higher than 6M, but AMD said that the inventory reduction in the channel will continue, so don't count on any help from that angle. Perhaps, because of the Hammer delay, AMD will allow inventory to stay constant this quarter and reduce it in Q4 to prepare for Hammer sales, so that's a potential positive. They said the Q3 units are normally up. Perhaps AMD sold 6.3M in Q3, but at $55 vs. $63. Its clear that Intel did not make enough Celerons to meet demand at the low end, otherwise, units could be at 5M. That would still be a $32M decline in CPU revenues and its unlikely flash would increase more than $20M. So I say AMD will warn that revenues will be between $550 and $600M. The only way out of this is if AMD sells at least a couple 100K of 2400+ and 2600+ in the last two weeks of the quarter. BTW, at revenues of $580M, AMD's loss would be no higher than Q2's 600M because of full-quarter cost savings from headcount reduction during Q2. Knock on wood -- now that I've predicted it, maybe it won't happen. Petz