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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (16775)	9/23/2002 11:07:14 PM
From: geode00	Respond to of 42834

That's right, Bob's longterm model stopped tactical asset allocating at 65/35. While that's certainly better than 100%-66% equities, why it stopped there has always been a Bob-Mystery. Remember he was going to go at least 100% and likely 100%+ out of the market with the Rydex contra funds. I don't think he's ever recommended the contra funds during this huge decline but maybe someone else remembers differently? Even from the beginning of this year, well into the bear market, the Rydex Ursa is up around 30%. Yowza! I'm putting his "don't sell on weakness" mantra into the same sloppy bucket as his trading ideas. He's exhibited a tendency to get stuck on an idea regardless of what the market is doing.

To: Kirk © who wrote (16775)	9/24/2002 1:23:11 AM
From: Tim Bagwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Kirk, My hunch is that Brinker's "model" essentially was triggered by the Fed monetary policy. The Fed tightening reached a point which Bob considered critically overdone. How he arrived at the trigger point is his secret but apparently his other indicators did little to convince him of the impending bear. His tentative posture of 65/35 and unwillingness to use the "bear" word, coupled with his CTR and other untimely buys all point to a conflicted markettimer. One who sees a bear in one indicator and bulls still in charge of the others. Maybe, in fact, Brinker became too immersed in data that was incoherent in summation. But 11 straight Fed tightenings was something that he could hang a hat on.